Assisted Living Feasibility Study in North Carolina

Care homes without nursing, in line with the national class

North Carolina assisted living lending lands almost exactly on the national figures for the class. SBA approved 62 loans for homes without on-site nursing in FY2017 to FY2026, worth $66.0 million, with a median of $800,000 and a location quotient of 1.05x, and the median equals 1.05x the figure for the class across America. The state stands 11 of 50 on volume, though within North Carolina the class manages only 17 of 39. Nothing in the median or the outcome floors sets it apart from both North Carolina's statewide record and the class nationwide, so the page is about structure, concentration and what the evidence cannot say.

One lender, one county

Live Oak Banking Company holds 21 of the loans, worth $25.2 million, far ahead of Pinnacle Bank with 5 loans and $7.0 million and The Bancorp Bank National Association with 5 loans and $5.1 million. A national specialist writing so large a part of a state's care-home loans means a borrower should expect a standardised, underwriting-heavy process. Wake County alone has 18 loans, with Mecklenburg at 7 and Durham at 4, so the Triangle outweighs Charlotte in this class. The 7(a) programme provided 58 loans and the 504 programme 4. Franchising touches 6.5% of the loans. The central half of loans spans $480,750 to $1.4 million, enough for a conversion of a large house or a smaller purpose-built home.

Outcomes and what the code leaves out

North Carolina approvals from FY2017 up to FY2024 were lost to cancellation at no less than 8.5%, with the same ceiling of 8.5%. The charge-off rate is unavailable here, since the funded cohort numbers under 30 loans. We print no figure and do not suggest that no loan failed. Only homes lacking on-site nursing have a code of their own, and dementia care is not coded separately, so a project that mixes nursing or dementia units belongs partly in the skilled nursing and continuing care classes. Annual approvals ran from 1 loan in FY2018 to 9 in FY2023.

What a study for North Carolina must test

A feasibility study for a care home should begin with private-pay demand: older residents within a realistic radius who can afford monthly fees, and the beds already licensed nearby. It must test construction or conversion cost against a median around $800,000, stabilised census against the slow months of lease-up, and debt service coverage with a delayed fill. Staffing and licensing costs need their own schedule, because wages and compliance move with census. Appraisal turns on licensed beds and the earnings they support, so the study's occupancy and rate assumptions must be ones an appraiser can accept. Pay particular attention to concentration around Raleigh, where competing homes may already be serving the same families.