Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA Metro Area

Restaurants lead the Santa Rosa and Petaluma record

Full-service restaurants hold first place, 1 of 39, among the classes SBA tracks for Santa Rosa-Petaluma, and the area stands 74 of 821 for the class. In FY2017 through FY2026 SBA approved 70 loans worth $41.5 million, every one of them placed in Sonoma County, CA. The location quotient of 1.19x puts restaurants at a slightly larger share locally than nationally.

The median loan is $401,000, with the central half spanning $201,250 to $773,350. Put beside the national figure for restaurants, the ratio is 1.46x, so Sonoma loans run much larger than the norm. Program counts are 56 under 7(a) and 14 under 504. On franchising, Sonoma has nothing to print, because Loan Analytics withholds the share, and nothing is not zero.

One bank dominates the 7(a) record

Exchange Bank (CA) holds 22 of the 7(a) loans, worth $13.4 million, far more than any other holder, and Redwood CU holds 5 worth $1.4 million. On the 504 side, Bay Area Employment Development Company holds 6 loans worth $4.0 million. The page claims nothing about any holder's practices; the figures only record loans SBA lists under each name.

At least 16.4% of FY2017 to FY2024 approvals ended in cancellation, while the stricter ceiling, which counts undisbursed loans as cancelled, also reads 16.4%. Loan Analytics withholds the charge-off rate. Santa Rosa-Petaluma had 10 loans and $5.8 million in FY2017, 9 loans and $8.1 million in FY2023, 8 loans and $3.7 million in FY2025 and 7 loans and $4.4 million in FY2026, while FY2020 held only 5 loans worth $578,800. Loan Analytics withholds the other years. Sonoma County's loans enter through the July 2023 delineation, and anything unmatched to a county is dropped.

What a Sonoma County restaurant study must test

Seasonality and visitor trade are tests the study should run. It should model monthly revenue through the year, separate visitors from residents, and count how many covers the room can serve against competing restaurants in the county. Wage and staffing cost belong in the budget. With loans above the national norm, build-out per seat and shell condition deserve line-by-line review. Coverage should be run on a soft first year, and the appraisal has to part property value from going-concern value and show its comparable sales.