Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Raleigh-Cary, NC Metro Area

Raleigh: bigger restaurant loans in a smaller market

Raleigh posts 141 sit-down restaurant loans over FY2017 to FY2026, worth $97.8 million, forty-fourth of 821 areas for the class even though restaurants head the local mix, first of 39. The location quotient comes to 1.13x. The cell's main distinction is a $500,000 median, 1.82x the nationwide class midpoint, within quartiles of $225,000 and $900,000. Raleigh restaurateurs borrow almost twice what the class typically does elsewhere.

Programs and franchises

Of the 141 loans, 135 are 7(a) and 6 are 504. Franchised concepts hold 26.2% of loans, so independents still outnumber brands. First National Bank of Pennsylvania is listed with 15 loans worth $9.7 million, The Huntington National Bank with 10 worth $8.0 million, United Community Bank (SC) with 8 worth $3.6 million, TowneBank with 7 worth $7.6 million and Pinnacle Bank (TN) with 6 worth $5.9 million. Several are out-of-state banks; the list is SBA's record of holders and not an account of their appetite.

Geography and the years

Wake County holds 127 loans and Johnston County 14, so this is essentially a Wake County market, and a borrower in the surrounding counties should ask how far these figures extend to a different trade area. Yearly figures are partly withheld; where printed, FY2017 shows 22 loans and $12.7 million, FY2018 only 13 loans and $3.6 million, and FY2025 22 loans and $15.8 million. The withheld years rest on too few loans and are not zero.

What the record cannot say

Cancellations were 8.7% or more of FY2017 to FY2024 approvals, which is a lower bound. No cancellation ceiling and no charge-off rate are printed, so the page cannot say how Raleigh restaurant loans fared once disbursed. Wake and Johnston loans reach the area because their county names are on the 2023 metro map, and nothing outside those two counties is counted. A restaurant study here has to test seat demand in the trade area itself, whether a build-out or lease cost supports a ticket near the median, cash flow after debt service across the quartile range, and an appraisal keeping real estate apart from the going concern. Because yearly figures are patchy, it should also look at recent local openings and closings first-hand.