Quick Service Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Raleigh-Cary, NC Metro Area

Franchise-led, with no charge-offs yet

Franchised concepts account for 67.8% of the limited-service restaurant loans in Raleigh-Cary, and the cohort disbursed in FY2017 to FY2021 shows no charge-offs: the rate to date is 0.00% across 44 loans, and the rate within five years is also 0.00%. That is a floor from a small group, and later losses can still appear. Raleigh-Cary is 39th of 779 areas and second among its own classes for this one, and a location quotient of 1.42x shows a clear tilt toward it.

The file holds 118 approvals and $67.0 million gross. Median size is $415,500, 1.34x the national level, with middle loans from $232,000 to $636,275. Almost all, 112, are SBA 7(a); 6 are SBA 504. Wake County accounts for 105 of the loans, so the file is mostly one county.

Holders on the SBA list

The Huntington National Bank is listed on 20 loans worth $4.4 million. Eight loans each belong to North State Bank ($4.0 million) and SouthState Bank, National Association ($3.6 million). Then Citizens Bank (TN), 7 loans and $3.6 million. At the bottom, Wells Fargo Bank National Association has just 5 loans yet $8.1 million, the largest loans on average. No 504 lender has enough loans to appear. SBA records holders, not intentions: nothing here forecasts how a particular bank would treat a new borrower.

Raleigh's pipeline leaked, with 15.7% or more of FY2017 through FY2024 approvals cancelled; Loan Analytics withholds the ceiling that adds undisbursed loans, so it is blank here. The yearly counts run from 8 in FY2017 to 21 in FY2025, worth $10.6 million, and back to 8 in FY2026, worth $4.2 million.

What a Raleigh quick-service study has to test

A study should count competing drive-throughs by corridor and watch their queues, and should test the draw of a site against commuter flows and the nearby employers. Cost follows the franchisor's build package; the study should confirm the lease or land cost against the sales needed to carry it. Because the zero charge-off rate comes from a small cohort, it should not be taken as proof of low risk, and debt service coverage still needs a cautious ramp. The count of 118 loans includes only those whose county matched the July 2023 list.