Child Care Center Feasibility Study in the Raleigh-Cary, NC Metro Area

Child care in the Triangle: franchise-heavy and large

Raleigh's child care record is dominated by one county and by franchising. Wake County supplies 72 of the 79 loans, and Johnston County 7. A franchise flag attaches to 60.8% of loans. Approvals between FY2017 and FY2026 reached $116.9 million gross, ranking the area 27 of 493 nationally and child care 4 of 39 on the Raleigh class list. The location quotient of 2.03x says the class is about twice as prominent in Raleigh lending as in the national book.

Loans are large: the median is $908,800, 2.01x the national median, with quartile edges at $354,000 and $2.1 million. Programs: 63 loans carry the 7(a) label and 16 the 504 label. Home-based child care falls under the same code, which may drag the low end of the Raleigh range down.

Two names at the threshold

Business Expansion Funding Corporation shows 16 loans and $22.9 million on the 504 side, and Live Oak Banking Company shows 5 loans and $18.9 million. The dollar totals per loan are very high, which fits projects that include a building. These are SBA records of loans held or once held, with no bearing on present criteria.

What the record omits

At least 11.9% of approvals through FY2024 were cancelled. Raleigh child care has no cancellation ceiling, no loss rate and few yearly counts in the record, and a missing number is not a zero. Child care loans of this size fail or succeed on enrollment, so the study should document demand carefully.

With 72 of the 79 loans in Wake County, the Raleigh record is close to a single-county story, and a centre in Johnston County, with 7, works from a very thin local record. The study should therefore compare the project to Wake County experience while explaining what differs at the edge of the region: land cost, commuting patterns and the supply of licensed seats. It should also show whether the franchisor's required enrollment ramp matches the market the site can realistically draw on.

The Raleigh study should show how many licensed seats already exist near the site, who the families are by age band, what staffing and wages will cost, how tuition compares with those costs, what the franchise burden is for a branded centre, what the building costs, and coverage near $908,800. Wake and Johnston child care loans are counted when each county appears in the July 2023 delineation; a centre with a county that does not match would be missing, which makes 79 a floor for the Raleigh area.