Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Provo-Orem-Lehi, UT Metro Area

Provo-Orem: restaurants fourth in the order, lightly weighted

The Provo record for full-service restaurant spans FY2017 to FY2026: 55 loans, $25.6 million. Nationally, Provo sits 94 of 821 for full-service restaurant loans; within Provo, the class is 4 of 39. The location quotient of 0.40x means full-service restaurant counts for less in Provo than in the national mix. The class is placed fourth locally because other classes dominate even more strongly.

$359,000 is the median in Provo, and the middle half sits between $125,000 and $548,000. Provo reads 1.31x of the national full-service restaurant median, so tickets here run bigger. Programs split 43 to 12, 7(a) against 504, across Provo. 14.5% of the loans in Provo belong to franchised units.

Two banks on the record

Central Bank (UT) holds more loans than Zions Bancorporation, National Association, with a much larger dollar total. Among 7(a) holders: $5.1 million across 9 loans at Central Bank (UT) and $1.4 million across 7 loans at Zions Bancorporation, National Association. The Provo holder list reflects SBA records, so read them as holdings.

Neither floor nor loss rate shows for Provo, a gap, not a result. By year: FY2017, 6 loans and $4.5 million, FY2018, 7 loans and $2.8 million, FY2022, 8 loans and $3.4 million, and FY2024, 6 loans and $2.6 million. Other years are suppressed in Provo, and none is zero. The July 2023 list of counties defines Provo, and failed matches drop out.

Provo: what the study must test

Demand by daypart and by season needs testing, using workers and households nearby, and competing full-service rooms should be compared by seats and turn times. If the local population includes a large student base, summer and break periods need their own revenue assumptions. Menu mix and beverage revenue should reflect local norms, not national averages, because they decide check size. Loans run larger than the class norm, so build-out per seat and equipment should be itemized, and debt service must pass a soft first year. Value the building on its own, then the going concern, and justify each adjustment. Because the location quotient is low even though restaurants lead the local order, the study should explain why a room can reach sales that carry the payment, naming the closest competitors by seat count and price point.