Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY Metro Area

Restaurants matter more here than almost anywhere

The Capital Region's location quotient for full-service restaurant loans is 1.53x, so restaurants weigh far more in local SBA loans than in loans across the country. The area is 47th of 821, and restaurants are the leading class among its 39. The file holds 125 approvals, $60.2 million gross, for FY2017 to FY2026. Median size, $200,000, is 0.73x the national level, and the centre of the distribution lies between $75,000 and $480,000. Franchise flags appear on only 4.0%, so independents dominate the file.

Program counts are 103 for SBA 7(a) and 22 for SBA 504. Albany County has 53 of the loans, Saratoga County 40, Schenectady County 18 and Rensselaer County 14.

A development company at the head of the 504 list

Empire State Certified Development Corporation is the only 504 holder to reach SBA's list, with all 22 of the area's 504 loans, worth $14.7 million. Two 7(a) holders tie at 16 loans: Beacon Bank and Trust, worth $15.5 million, and The Adirondack Trust Company, worth only $1.2 million, a striking difference in loan size. Below them KeyBank National Association has 13 ($3.9 million), New York Business Development Corporation 10 ($5.7 million) and Newtek Bank, National Association 8 ($1.0 million). These are the holders SBA shows today. They do not indicate how any of them would approach a new borrower.

Approvals cancelled between FY2017 and FY2024 came to 13.3% or more; the ceiling that adds loans never disbursed comes out identical. Loan Analytics withholds the loss rate so far for lack of enough loans, so none is printed; it is not zero. Approvals began with 21 in FY2017, slid to 8 in FY2023, and recovered to 14 in FY2024, worth $11.3 million, and again in FY2026.

Capital Region restaurants: what the study must prove

Analysis has to say which part of the area the site serves, by county. Demand is built from daytime and evening populations and competing seats. Because 22 of the loans are 504 loans, real estate value and cost of occupancy deserve attention in the review. Equipment and kitchen build-out need an honest budget, and debt service must hold through the slowest months. The appraisal should treat the restaurant business and the building as separate pieces. Capital Region totals err low, since only loans with a county on the July 2023 list can be counted at all.