Quick Service Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Stockton-Lodi, CA Metro Area

One county, heavy franchising

Every one of the 52 loans in the Stockton-Lodi record sits in San Joaquin County, CA, so metro and county describe the same market. Counter-service restaurants rank second locally, 2 of 39, while the metro stands 67 of 779 nationally. A location quotient of 1.38x shows these restaurants holding a bigger share of lending than nationally, and the 63.5% franchise share explains why: this is a branded-operator market, with all that implies for fees, standards and territory.

Dollars approved from FY2017 to FY2026 come to $25.2 million. The midpoint loan of $350,000 is 1.13x its national counterpart, and half the loans fall between $194,500 and $577,500. The 7(a) against 504 division is not published for lack of loans, so no program counts appear. No holder has enough loans to be listed, so no lender is named on this page, and a borrower should ask a prospective lender about its own experience with franchised concepts.

Floors and years

With franchise flags on 63.5% of these loans, the franchise agreement itself is a document a study should read closely. Stockton cancellations reach 15.4% at minimum among FY2017 to FY2024 approvals, while a ceiling that includes undisbursed loans is also 15.4%. No charge-off rate prints, and the blank is not a zero. By year: FY2017 had 10 loans and $5.8 million, FY2018 had 7 and $2.1 million, FY2021 had 5 and $1.6 million, FY2022 had 7 and $6.1 million, FY2023 had 5 and $1.9 million. The file records no approvals for FY2019. FY2020 and FY2024 through FY2026 are hidden, which leaves the recent picture unclear.

A loan is counted here through its project county and the July 2023 delineation, so loans with an unplaceable county are absent.

Stockton: proving a franchised counter

A franchised counter in Stockton needs its trade area tested against traffic, the location of rival brands and the franchisor's own unit economics. The build-out should be costed against the $350,000 midpoint, with royalties and advertising fees counted, and sales and margin must support debt service coverage. Valuation treats the operating restaurant and the lease as one asset. Every Stockton report bears the signature of Daniel Smith, MAI, with approval left to the lender.