Gas Station Feasibility Study in the Stockton-Lodi, CA Metro Area

The most concentrated fuel market in this set

Stockton-Lodi puts gas stations first among its classes, 1 of 39, and the central fact is a location quotient of 4.28x: fuel retail weighs far more in Stockton lending than in the national book. The 55 loans total $136.8 million across FY2017 to FY2026, the metro is 20 of 600 for the category, and the median of $2.2 million is 2.08x the national median for the class.

Big tickets, branded pumps

Loans in the middle half run from $1.0 million to $4.0 million. Program counts are 41 for 7(a) and 14 for 504, and franchise units are 65.5% of loans. Among certified development companies only Advantage Certified Development Corporation clears the naming threshold, at 5 loans worth $10.8 million; Open Bank is the sole 7(a) name that clears the listing bar, at 5 worth $14.0 million. These are SBA holder records. San Joaquin County alone supplies all 55 loans, so metro and county are one and the same here.

The industry code includes truck stops and travel centers along with fuel stops that lack a convenience store, so some rows are not roadside convenience stores. Counts that can be shown: 8 loans in FY2017 ($9.9 million), 5 in FY2018 ($7.5 million), 6 in FY2019 ($14.0 million), 5 in FY2020 ($5.8 million), 10 in FY2021 ($25.5 million) and 6 in FY2023 ($20.1 million). FY2022 and FY2024 through FY2026 are withheld. Cancellation hit 19.6% of the cohort approved in FY2017 to FY2024 as a minimum; the stricter count, 19.6% as well, adds nothing. The charge-off rate is withheld.

Proving out a Stockton fuel site

With cancellation at 19.6% at minimum, a study should show the path from approval to closing: environmental review, tank and canopy cost, permits and supply agreements. It should test the traffic on the site's road, including any truck traffic, gallons and inside sales against a branded supplier's expectations, and the competing sites within reach. Debt service must hold when fuel margins compress. If the property is a truck stop rather than a roadside store, the model needs different volumes and a different appraisal approach. The figures say nothing about a particular borrower's chances, and the single lender named on the 7(a) table and the single development company named on the 504 table should be read as the largest holders of recorded loans, not as the only places to seek capital.