Liquor Store Feasibility Study in the Greeley, CO Metro Area

Liquor stores are unusually concentrated in the Greeley area. The location quotient of 4.83x says liquor stores take a much bigger slice of Greeley-area lending than they do of national lending, liquor stores hold 2 of 39 places on the area's list, and the area ranks 23 in a field of 426. Across FY2017 to FY2026 there are 41 approvals worth $37.1 million, and the $702,000 median is 1.56x the national class median.

One county, one dominant bank

Weld County, CO supplies all 41 loans. Hanmi Bank shows 25 loans and $26.8 million, the lion's share of both count and dollars, and B:Side Capital shows 5 loans and $3.4 million. The record is mostly one lender's portfolio in one county, and it is SBA's roll of what Hanmi holds or held, not a statement of the bank's policy. Central loans range from $432,000 to $1.1 million. Under 7(a) sit 36 of the loans and under 504 the other 5; the franchise share is 0.00%.

A real zero among hidden years

FY2017 had 5 loans and $3.8 million, FY2022 6 loans and $3.6 million and FY2023 7 loans and $8.2 million. FY2020 prints 0 loans and $0, a real tally and not a suppressed one. FY2018, FY2019, FY2021 and FY2024 through FY2026 are hidden, as are the cancellation and charge-off rates. Nothing hidden here is a zero, so no loss floor can be quoted.

Licensing, demand and inventory

A retail liquor project depends on its license, so the study must confirm that one is obtainable or transferable under Colorado rules and local limits on outlets; without it there is no business. Demand work should count households in the trade area, competing stores and the grocery and convenience outlets that sell similar product. Inventory financing, supplier terms and shrink belong in the cost model, with build-out and fixtures set beside the $702,000 median, which suggests that many loans include real estate or a going-concern purchase. Debt service coverage should assume a conservative ramp. Because one lender dominates, the borrower should test alternatives. Appraisal should separate inventory, license value and real estate. Weld County placement follows the July 2023 definitions.