Grocery Store Feasibility Study in the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL Metro Area

Orlando: a grocery median far above the national one

What sets Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL apart in SBA's grocery file is loan size: at $1.6 million, the median is 4.54x its national counterpart, and that figure leads the page. Adding FY2017 to FY2026 together gives Orlando 27 loans and $50.3 million. Grocery ranks 14th among the 39 classes in the area, which is 26th of 412 for the class. The location quotient of 0.74x shows the class weighs less than nationally, but the page does not call it distinctive.

The middle half of loans runs from $988,500 to $2.4 million. Under 7(a) sit 18 loans and under 504 sit 9, and the franchise share prints as 0.00%. Regions Bank appears as holder of 5, together carrying $12.6 million. Orange County holds 10 loans, Osceola County 7, and Lake County and Seminole County 5 each.

There is also a sizing signal in the middle half. Loans in the middle half span $988,500 to $2.4 million, so even the lower end of the typical range sits near a million dollars. A borrower with a small-format store should expect the lender to compare it with that range and ask what is excluded, while one with a large store should show why the figure is justified.

One year

Only FY2023 can be shown, with 6 loans worth $9.4 million. Fiscal years absent for Orlando had too few loans. Fewer than 30 loans back Orlando, so no cancellation or charge-off rate.

Four counties appear in the Orlando record, Orange, Osceola, Lake and Seminole, which is more spread than most cells carry. A lender will see that grocery lending in this area is not confined to a single core county, so a site in any of the four has precedent. The 9 loans under the 504 program and 18 under 7(a) also mean a plan should state its structure, and Regions Bank's holdings show up as the one named holder.

Why the Orlando median matters to a grocery plan

A median of $1.6 million suggests loans that carry real estate, fixtures and refrigeration, and a lender will treat a small request as a different product. The study has to test weekly sales against that cost, the households within reach of the site, the competing grocers, delivery access and parking, and inventory carrying cost inside debt service. A mix of 7(a) and 504 loans means a plan should say which structure it assumes. An appraisal should value the property separately from the operating business, and the study should provide both.