Child Care Center Feasibility Study in the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL Metro Area

Child care with a strong local concentration

Orlando shows 154 child care center loans, totalling $170.4 million over FY2017 to FY2026; the class is third of 39 locally, and the area is fifteenth of 493 nationally. Two ratios define the cell. One is a location quotient of 1.74x, a much heavier local weight than the country shows. The other is a median loan of $748,000, 1.65x the class midpoint nationwide, between quartiles of $350,475 and $1.4 million, so this is a market of sizeable centers and not of home-based providers.

Programs, franchises and the code

The 154 loans split 114 to 7(a) and 40 to 504. Franchised centers hold 28.6% of loans, a sizeable minority that points to branded early-education systems. A single industry code blends centers with in-home child care, so family homes stay in the figures; the study should name the model being financed. Florida Business Development Corporation is the only 504 lender named, with 21 loans worth $24.0 million.

Lenders and counties

Within 7(a), TD Bank, National Association is shown at 11 loans and $9.3 million, Citizens Bank (TN) at 8 and $10.0 million, American Momentum Bank at 7 and $4.3 million, and the pair Wells Fargo Bank National Association and Live Oak Banking Company at 5 loans apiece, valued at $12.4 million and $4.8 million. Presence on the list reflects holding, not credit stance. Orange County leads with 80 loans, followed by Seminole with 35, Osceola with 20 and Lake with 19. Annual counts range from 8 loans in FY2020 to 22 loans in both FY2021 and FY2025.

Cancellation bounds in Orlando

Of FY2017 to FY2024 approvals, 12.5% or more ended up cancelled, a floor. Orlando's upper bound for cancellations and its charge-off percentage are held back for lack of loans; held back means unknown, never zero. Membership follows from name-matching project counties against the July 2023 metro map. A centre study has to test the number of children by age and the working households in the catchment, licensing and ratio rules, competing centers and their enrolment, building cost against the high loan range, debt service coverage and a valuation of a specialised building.