Grocery Store Feasibility Study in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metro Area

Minneapolis grocery: many loans, modest sizes

Minneapolis, St. Paul and Bloomington ranks 11 of 412 among areas for grocery store loans, and grocery store ranks 12 of 39 in Minneapolis, St. Paul and Bloomington itself. The location quotient of 0.82x says groceries are a lighter part of local SBA lending than in the nation overall. Between FY2017 and FY2026 the area, which crosses into Wisconsin, logged 67 loans for $44.2 million. The Minneapolis, St. Paul and Bloomington median of $275,000 equals 0.78x of the national grocery median; the middle half of grocery loans runs from $50,000 to $620,500.

Minneapolis, St. Paul and Bloomington grocery lending leans on SBA 7(a) for 53 loans, with SBA 504 behind 14. Hennepin County has 27 loans, Ramsey County 19, Dakota County 7 and Anoka County 6. Amplio Economic Development Corporation is the 504 name, 5 loans and $3.9 million. On the 7(a) list, U.S. Bank has 11 loans yet only $992,400 in total, while Sunrise Banks National Association holds 6 for $2.1 million. Loan Analytics withholds the franchise share here because too few loans stand behind it. Each name above is a present holder in SBA's files; none of it says anything about the credit criteria of Amplio Economic Development Corporation or any other name.

Of grocery approvals in Minneapolis, St. Paul and Bloomington, approvals made FY2017 to FY2024 show cancellation of 14.3% or more, so the true share may be larger. Three items go unprinted for these grocery loans: a charge-off figure, the cancellation ceiling that counts undisbursed loans, and the franchise share. Loan Analytics keeps each of them back on a thin count, and silence is not nil. The yearly line for Minneapolis, St. Paul and Bloomington shows 9 loans and $3.0 million in FY2019, 6 and $8.6 million in FY2021, 6 and $7.9 million in FY2022, 13 and $7.0 million in FY2023, and 13 and $6.5 million in FY2024.

Minneapolis grocery: study questions for a Twin Cities grocer

A grocer here has to be tested on the neighborhood trade area, the pull of larger chains and cooperatives, cost of cold storage, operating cost through the seasons, and coverage of debt service at a $275,000 median loan. If real estate is bought, the appraisal should support it separately from inventory and fixtures. For the Minneapolis, St. Paul and Bloomington area, each grocery loan is placed by project county name match using the July 2023 metro map. Unmatched counties are skipped. This record is background to a grocery plan, and no decision is assured by it.