Fitness Center Feasibility Study in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metro Area

Gyms in the Twin Cities: a seventh-place market with low cancellation

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington ranks 7 of 608 areas for fitness center loans, and fitness centers rank third among the 39 classes within the area. SBA approved 301 loans for $118.6 million between FY2017 and FY2026. A location quotient of 1.23x marks gyms and studios as over-represented in Twin Cities lending when set against the country. Hennepin County holds 126 of the loans, Dakota County 47, Washington County 29, Anoka County 25 and Ramsey County 21, while St. Croix County, WI adds 12.

The median loan is $225,800, which is 0.87x the national figure, with half of all loans falling from $80,000 up to $451,000. SBA 7(a) accounts for 271 loans and SBA 504 for 30. Franchise flags sit on 49.5% of loans, so nearly half of borrowers are buying into a branded model with its own fit-out standards and fees.

Who holds the Twin Cities fitness loans

The holder named in each row is the one SBA records today, and the originator may be another institution. On the 504 side, Twin Cities-Metro Certified Development Company has 17 loans worth $16.9 million. Under 7(a), The Huntington National Bank has 36 worth $12.5 million, Old National Bank 23 worth $14.4 million, U.S. Bank, National Association 21 worth $2.7 million, Choice Financial Group 18 worth $7.5 million and Bridgewater Bank 9 worth $3.7 million. Old National's loans are the largest on average. A holder's record shows concentration, not underwriting rules.

Cancellation took at least 6.9% of FY2017 to FY2024 approvals, or 9.0% at the ceiling that includes undisbursed loans. Looking at 135 loans disbursed across FY2017 to FY2021, at least 6.7% are charged off to date. Loan Analytics prints no rate for losses inside five years of approval because that cohort is under 30 loans, and the missing figure is not a zero. Approvals were 43 in FY2017, bottomed at 19 in FY2021 and FY2022, and reached 35 in FY2024 and again in FY2025.

What a fitness-center study must test

Memberships are the revenue and attrition is the risk, so the study has to model sign-ups, monthly churn and the ramp to a break-even membership count before the first dollar of profit. Demand comes from the adult population within a short drive, income, and the presence of low-cost chains and boutique studios nearby. Cost includes floor loading, ventilation, locker and shower provisions and equipment, which loses value fast. If a franchise is involved, its fees and required remodel cycle belong in cash flow. Counts here take in a Twin Cities loan only when the July 2023 list contains its project county; any that failed the match are missing, so treat counts as minimums.