Modesto: gas stations carry five times their national weight

Modesto ranks 24 of 600 for gas station and truck stop loans among metro and micro areas, and the class ranks 1 of 39 within Modesto. The location quotient is 5.77x: fuel retail carries well over five times its national weight in Modesto lending. The files hold 50 loans for $122.5 million, FY2017 to FY2026, all in Stanislaus County. Gas station loans in Modesto run $1.3 million to $3.5 million in the middle half, centered on $2.4 million, which is 2.26x the national gas station median.

Nine Modesto gas station loans use SBA 504, while 41 use SBA 7(a). Franchise brands appear on 74.0% of the loans. Celtic Bank Corporation is the SBA 7(a) holder printed, with $45.7 million across 14 loans. The lender entries are SBA’s ledger of holders and say nothing of Celtic Bank Corporation’s requirements. They record holdings alone.

Among FY2017 to FY2024 approvals, 19.5% or more were lost to cancellation, so the true share may be larger. Treating loans still undisbursed as cancelled yields the same 19.5%. Loan Analytics does not print a charge-off rate, given how few loans exist; silence is not nil. In FY2017 there were 6 approvals worth $10.2 million; in FY2018, 8 approvals worth $10.5 million; in FY2019, 6 approvals worth $11.8 million; in FY2021, 6 approvals worth $14.1 million; and in FY2023, 6 approvals worth $19.4 million.

What a Modesto fuel study tests

Stations in Modesto share a code with truck stops; the borrower’s stated industry is all the code records, and EV charging has no 2022 NAICS entry. A loan belongs to Modesto when the financed site’s county falls in the area under the July 2023 boundaries; a loan with a county that fits no area is dropped. Because the cell is so concentrated and the tickets so large, a study should test fuel margin, convenience and food sales, truck traffic on the corridor, environmental conditions at the site, brand terms, and debt service at multi-million sizes. These figures are background to a gas station analysis, and no approval follows from them.

SBA gas station and truck stop loans in the Modesto, CA Metro Area

Loans approved, FY2017 to FY2026	50
Gross dollars approved	$122.5 million
Median loan	$2.4 million
Middle half of loans, from	$1.3 million
Middle half of loans, to	$3.5 million
SBA 7(a) loans	41
SBA 504 loans	9
Franchise share of loans	74.0%
Rank among metro and micro areas for gas station and truck stop loans	24 of 600
Rank of gas station and truck stop among the classes in this area	1 of 39
Location quotient (share of loans against the national share)	5.77x
Median loan against the national median for the class	2.26x

Cancellation and charge-off

Cancelled after approval, FY2017 to FY2024 approvals (a floor)	19.5%
The same, counting loans still undisbursed as cancelled (a ceiling)	19.5%
Charged off to date, FY2017 to FY2021 disbursed loans (a floor)	withheld

Both rates are floors. SBA withholds the status of open loans, so a loan counts as charged off only once SBA reports it; a rate needs at least 30 loans in its cohort and is otherwise not reported.

SBA gas station and truck stop loans approved in the Modesto, CA Metro Area, by fiscal year

Fiscal year	Loans	Dollars
FY2017	6	$10.2 million
FY2018	8	$10.5 million
FY2019	6	$11.8 million
FY2020	withheld	withheld
FY2021	6	$14.1 million
FY2022	withheld	withheld
FY2023	6	$19.4 million
FY2024	withheld	withheld
FY2025	withheld	withheld
FY2026	withheld	withheld

Most active SBA lenders

SBA 7(a): lenders by loans approved (the current holder of each loan, as SBA reports it)
Lender	Loans	Dollars
Celtic Bank Corporation	14	$45.7 million

Lenders with 5 or more loans here; a lender with fewer is not listed, and loans SBA or a receiver holds are counted but never listed as a lender.

Where the loans are, by county

County	Loans
Stanislaus County, CA	50

Counties with 5 or more loans; smaller ones are not listed.

Metro is the CBSA (metropolitan or micropolitan statistical area) of the loan's project county, July 2023 delineation (OMB Bulletin 23-01). The county is matched by name (manifests/ld2/county-cbsa-map.csv); a loan whose county cannot be placed in a 2023 CBSA is left out of every metro.

The code is the borrower's industry. Truck stop or travel center cannot be split out. EV charging has no entry in the 2022 NAICS index.

Shared code: Truck stops and travel centers sit inside 457120 with gas stations that have no convenience store.

A value marked withheld rests on fewer than 5 loans, or is withheld so that such a figure cannot be derived from other published figures.

Source: U.S. Small Business Administration, 7(a) and 504 loan-level FOIA files (data.sba.gov), as of 2026-09-30; areas from the U.S. Census Bureau CBSA delineation, July 2023 (OMB Bulletin 23-01); Loan Analytics metro cell MA-33700-C01.

Related feasibility study pages

Loan Analytics prepares the feasibility study a lender reads before it commits: for a gas station and truck stop project in the Modesto, CA Metro Area, financed under SBA 7(a), SBA 504, USDA Business and Industry or a conventional bank loan. Tell us the project and the lender's deadline, and we reply with scope, timeline and fee.

Daniel Smith, MAI

Gas Station Feasibility Study in the Modesto, CA Metro Area