Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Modesto, CA Metro Area

Modesto: full-service restaurant lending

In Modesto, between FY2017 and FY2026, SBA recorded 32 full-service restaurant loans, carrying $16.2 million in gross dollars. Within Modesto, full-service restaurant lending is placed 3 of 39 in the local class table, and Modesto comes in at 145 of 821 among all metro and micro areas by full-service restaurant loan count. Modesto's location quotient is 0.84x: less weight than nationally. Modesto's median loan size comes to $348,000. The middle half of Modesto loans runs from $150,000 to $628,750, and the median comes to 1.27x the class median nationally. FY2017 is the one printed year with real volume, 10 loans worth $4.3 million, while FY2020 shows 0 loans and $0. Third among local classes (3 of 39), full-service dining shows a 0.84x location quotient and a 1.27x median ratio that pull in different directions: fewer loans than the national mix would suggest, but larger ones.

By program in Modesto, the SBA 7(a) count is 27 and the SBA 504 count is 5. Franchise-affiliated units make up 21.9% of the Modesto loan count. In Modesto, no holder gets to five loans. Modesto therefore identifies no lender. The whole count of 32 sits in Stanislaus County, CA.

Modesto: years, floors and limits

In Modesto, a few years can be shown: FY2017 records 10 loans valued at $4.3 million. In FY2020, Modesto shows 0 loans and $0. Held back for Modesto: FY2018, FY2019 and FY2021 to FY2026. Those Modesto years are never zeros. Modesto's cancellation rate: not given, fewer than 30 loans. Any Modesto charge-off rate: suppressed, fewer than 30 loans. Modesto uses Loan Analytics' own floor. Modesto has a thin FY2017 to FY2021 group. Modesto takes the July 2023 list. Modesto takes in a loan solely by its county. Modesto drops unmatched loans.

Modesto: what to test

A Modesto restaurant study should treat the swing between a busy year and an empty one as a warning about the market for these loans, and not as a forecast. The sponsor should show cost certainty, a sales forecast for the corridor, and payment coverage at a cautious level of covers, around a loan near $348,000. With 21.9% of loans franchised, the study should also state whether the project is branded and what the brand requires. The appraiser will value the income, not the plan.