Coffee Shop Feasibility Study in Connecticut

Small loans in a high-cost state

Connecticut coffee lending is a thin, small-ticket market. Between FY2017 and FY2026 SBA approved 70 loans for coffee shops and snack bars, worth $17.3 million in gross dollars. The median of $113,850 is only 0.47x what coffee shops nationally borrow at the midpoint, and half of the loans fall between $50,000 and $323,750. The class ranks 31 of 53 among states and 12 of 39 among classes in Connecticut, and its location quotient of 0.67x shows a smaller share of state lending than nationally. No metric marks this cell as distinctive, so the story is its small scale rather than any unusual outcome.

Programs, banks and regions

Nearly all of the lending is 7(a), at 69 loans, and SBA 504 appears just once. Franchise brands make up 28.6% of loans. The 7(a) table opens with Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company at 15 loans and $2.5 million; Santander Bank, National Association comes next with 7 loans and $2.0 million, TD Bank, National Association with 6 worth $200,000 and Liberty Bank with 5 worth $700,000. The average TD Bank loan is tiny, which hints at micro-scale financing. Connecticut reports by planning region: Capitol has 17 loans, Hartford and Western CT 8 each, and New Haven and South Central CT 7 each.

A late jump in volume

Approvals ran at 1 to 9 loans for most years, bottoming at 1 loan worth $125,000 in FY2022, then climbed to 7 in FY2025 and 18 in FY2026, worth $7.3 million, the largest year in the series. A lender should treat that as a recent cohort with no performance history yet.

Cancellations, and a withheld rate

Withdrawals before funding took at least 22.2% of approvals dated FY2017 through FY2024, and the strict reading changes nothing. That is a high floor for a small class. No loss rate is printed for this cell. Fewer than 30 coffee loans reached disbursement in the early window, and a percentage on so small a base would mislead; the gap is not a zero.

What the study must test

A Connecticut coffee study has to start with rent and occupancy cost, since the state's retail space is expensive and a thin median loan leaves little room for a large build-out. Foot traffic should be counted at the actual address, with commuter-rail and office patterns checked where relevant, and competing national chains and local roasters mapped. Coverage of the loan payment needs a modest daily ticket count, with labour costs fully loaded. Because so many approvals fell away, the work should also confirm lease terms and permits before financing is relied upon. A leased shop gives the appraiser little real estate to value, so the loan will rest on cash flow.