Child Care Center Feasibility Study in Oregon

Oregon child care: heavier tickets, thinner share

Oregon child care loans run larger than the class does nationally. The $529,500 median is 1.17x the class median nationwide, while the central half of Oregon loans sits between $195,400 and $902,000. SBA approved 76 center loans from FY2017 to FY2026 for $53.9 million, placing the state 30 of 53. A location quotient of 0.50x shows child care as a modest share of Oregon approvals beside the nationwide share, and the class ranks 11 of 39 inside the state. The cell is a modest share of Oregon approvals with a somewhat heavier ticket.

Under 7(a) there are 64 loans, and under 504 there are 12; franchising touches 10.5%. Nine loans each belong to KeyBank National Association ($5.0 million) and U.S. Bank, National Association ($3.9 million). Wells Fargo Bank National Association has 6 loans and $6.4 million while Columbia Bank holds 5 loans with $1.0 million in all. Celtic Bank Corporation also has 5. The Mortgage Capital Development Corporation leads 504 with 5 loans and $4.3 million.

Washington County first, Portland region overall

Washington County leads with 25 loans and Multnomah follows with 23, then Clackamas with 10 and Marion with 6. Those four counties lead the record. Clatsop, Columbia, Jackson, Lane and Malheur each have 2. Yearly counts rose from 4 in FY2017 to 11 in FY2023, and FY2026 shows 9 loans worth $11.8 million, the top dollar year in the series.

Oregon child care shows a cancellation floor of 12.1% with a ceiling that matches it at 12.1%. Looking at the 30 Oregon loans that disbursed earliest, charge-offs to date are 0.00%, and the early-years measure repeats 0.00%. A cohort of exactly that size is thin and open loans can still default, so a lender should read these as minimums, not as evidence that Oregon centers carry no risk.

Testing an Oregon center

A study must test whether the bigger median ticket is earned by the project: floor area, outdoor space and staffing all need to be costed. Demand work should count working households and licensed seats in the exact submarket, and compare the tuition assumed with what local families can pay. Coverage has to hold through the enrollment ramp. The appraisal should show the building's value without the operator. Also remember that the category under these loans lumps in-home providers with centers, so reading a figure as pure center lending overstates precision.