Worked Example: USDA B&I Gas Station Feasibility Study in Oregon
A worked example of the feasibility study a lender would read for a gas station project in Oregon, financed with a USDA Business and Industry guaranteed loan.
What SBA's own loan files show about lending in the Astoria, OR Micro Area, every asset class together, and what a feasibility study for a project there has to test.
Astoria is a micropolitan area, Clatsop County in the data, with 240 SBA approvals for FY2017 to FY2026 and $108.2 million gross, rank 280 of 928; 221 are 7(a) and 19 are 504. Astoria has a median loan of $75,750. Astoria stands at 0.36x the national figure; in Astoria, half of loans run $25,000 to $409,425. Median loan size is the figure on which Astoria departs from the national picture. Brands hold 6.3% of the count.
Astoria's cancellation floor and ceiling are the same figure, 15.0%, a high floor, which means nearly no cancelled loans were left undisbursed. A study here should read the figure as a warning about approvals that fall through, and should test whether the borrower's financing, permits and closing timeline are secure before the loan is sized.
Across asset types, full-service restaurant leads with 18 loans, hotel and motel has 14, limited-service restaurant 10, then coffee shop and snack bar at 7 and gas station and truck stop at 5; 161 loans sit outside them. Count was 35 loans and $22.3 million in FY2017, the peak, and 14 loans and $4.2 million at the FY2023 low, ending at 34 loans and $15.3 million in FY2026. Columbia Bank (OR) holds 84 loans and $8.8 million under 7(a), Marion & Polk Schools CU 40 loans and $12.7 million and U.S. Bank, National Association 38 loans and $8.2 million. Evergreen Business Capital holds 11 loans and $5.9 million on 504. Astoria lists rest on SBA's holder records. Astoria names hold or held these loans. Astoria counts are volume, and Astoria counts promise no lender requirement.
Astoria: cancelled after approval at least 15.0% of Astoria's approvals. The Astoria window is FY2017 to FY2024. Astoria counts undisbursed loans for 15.0%. Astoria charge-offs are withheld. The Astoria cohort is too thin; Astoria is not a zero. Open Astoria loans may raise every Astoria floor. The July 2023 delineation shapes Astoria. Astoria reads each project's county by name. Astoria loses a loan with no placeable county. Astoria counts every approval, named or not. Astoria work should test demand for hotels, ticket size and rent for coffee shops and fuel margin for gas stations, running debt service on a quiet year. Daniel Smith, MAI, names each Astoria study. Astoria studies are prepared by Loan Analytics.
| Loans approved, FY2017 to FY2026 | 240 |
|---|---|
| Gross dollars approved | $108.2 million |
| Median loan | $75,750 |
| Middle half of loans, from | $25,000 |
| Middle half of loans, to | $409,425 |
| SBA 7(a) loans | 221 |
| SBA 504 loans | 19 |
| Franchise share of loans | 6.3% |
| Rank among metro and micro areas by loans | 280 of 928 |
| Median loan against the national median | 0.36x |
| Cancelled after approval, FY2017 to FY2024 approvals (a floor) | 15.0% |
|---|---|
| The same, counting loans still undisbursed as cancelled (a ceiling) | 15.0% |
| Charged off to date, FY2017 to FY2021 disbursed loans (a floor) | withheld |
Both rates are floors. SBA withholds the status of open loans, so a loan counts as charged off only once SBA reports it; a rate needs at least 30 loans in its cohort and is otherwise not reported.
SBA loans approved in the Astoria, OR Micro Area, by fiscal year
| Fiscal year | Loans | Dollars |
|---|---|---|
| FY2017 | 35 | $22.3 million |
| FY2018 | 28 | $4.0 million |
| FY2019 | 15 | $5.3 million |
| FY2020 | 24 | $5.4 million |
| FY2021 | 17 | $15.1 million |
| FY2022 | 22 | $12.4 million |
| FY2023 | 14 | $4.2 million |
| FY2024 | 25 | $12.9 million |
| FY2025 | 26 | $11.5 million |
| FY2026 | 34 | $15.3 million |
| Asset class | Loans |
|---|---|
| Not in any of the 39 asset classes | 161 |
| Full-service restaurant | 18 |
| Hotel and motel | 14 |
| Limited-service restaurant | 10 |
| Coffee shop and snack bar | 7 |
| Gas station and truck stop | 5 |
Classes with 5 or more loans; smaller ones are withheld, and more where a small one could be derived.
| Lender | Loans | Dollars |
|---|---|---|
| Evergreen Business Capital | 11 | $5.9 million |
| Lender | Loans | Dollars |
|---|---|---|
| Columbia Bank (OR) | 84 | $8.8 million |
| Marion & Polk Schools CU | 40 | $12.7 million |
| U.S. Bank, National Association | 38 | $8.2 million |
| Celtic Bank Corporation | 12 | $26.3 million |
| KeyBank National Association | 7 | $5.2 million |
Lenders with 5 or more loans here; a lender with fewer is not listed, and loans SBA or a receiver holds are counted but never listed as a lender.
| County | Loans |
|---|---|
| Clatsop County, OR | 240 |
Counties with 5 or more loans; smaller ones are not listed.
Metro is the CBSA (metropolitan or micropolitan statistical area) of the loan's project county, July 2023 delineation (OMB Bulletin 23-01). The county is matched by name (manifests/ld2/county-cbsa-map.csv); a loan whose county cannot be placed in a 2023 CBSA is left out of every metro.
All assets: every 7(a) and 504 approval in the metro, including those outside the 39 asset classes.
A value marked withheld rests on fewer than 5 loans, or is withheld so that such a figure cannot be derived from other published figures.
Source: U.S. Small Business Administration, 7(a) and 504 loan-level FOIA files (data.sba.gov), as of 2026-09-30; areas from the U.S. Census Bureau CBSA delineation, July 2023 (OMB Bulletin 23-01); Loan Analytics metro cell MT-11820.
A worked example of the feasibility study a lender would read for a gas station project in Oregon, financed with a USDA Business and Industry guaranteed loan.
Loan Analytics prepares the feasibility study a lender reads before it commits: for a commercial project in the Astoria, OR Micro Area, financed under SBA 7(a), SBA 504, USDA Business and Industry or a conventional bank loan. Tell us the project and the lender's deadline, and we reply with scope, timeline and fee.
Start with the data.
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