Warehouse Feasibility Study in the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ Metro Area

New York region: first nationally, 20 of 39 at home

The New York-Newark area stands first, 1 of 184, among areas for warehouse and distribution loans, yet inside the area the class is only 20 of 39. SBA approved 65 loans worth $73.4 million between FY2017 and FY2026. Warehouse lending is a larger share of local SBA activity than nationally, according to the 1.38x location quotient. The county detail is thin: Middlesex County, NJ has 10 loans, Passaic County, NJ, Rockland County, NY and Suffolk County, NY 7 each, Ocean County, NJ 6, and both Essex County, NJ and Union County, NJ 5.

The median loan is $350,000, with an inner half between $200,000 and $1.3 million. At 0.70x the national median, loans here are noticeably smaller than the norm, which suggests small owner-users more than investors. The program split is 53 under 7(a) and 12 under 504. A franchise share of 0.00% fits a class built on independent owners.

Banks named on the warehouse record

Of the holders named, TD Bank, National Association has 9 loans worth only $949,000, a small average, while Fulton Bank, National Association has 5 worth $7.6 million and FinWise Bank has 5 worth $6.4 million, far larger loans. In New York, each line shows what SBA lists, yet say nothing of underwriting.

FY2017 to FY2024 saw at least 22.9% of approvals cancelled, with a ceiling of 22.9% once undisbursed loans count; the charge-off rate is withheld. By year the record shows 7 loans and $3.3 million in FY2017, 7 loans and $10.9 million in FY2018, 8 loans and $15.4 million in FY2020, 7 loans and $6.0 million in FY2023 and 10 loans and $9.1 million in FY2024. The class covers public warehousing only; owner-occupied warehouses of other industries are coded to those industries and sit elsewhere. The New York area is built from project counties, and failed matches drop out.

What a New York-area warehouse study must test

The study needs a use case first: owner-user, tenant-occupied or speculative. Demand should come from the trade and logistics that actually need space in these counties, with rents tested against competing industrial buildings. Clear height, dock doors, power and truck access define which users the building can serve. Taxes and upkeep weigh more when space sits vacant, so coverage should be run through a rollover if the largest tenant leaves. Because cancellations ran high, the study should show sources and uses and a realistic timeline to closing. The appraisal should compare similar industrial buildings by size and state whether owner-user or investor value is used.