Feasibility Study Data for the Vallejo, CA Metro Area

A Solano County record leaning on 504

Vallejo is Solano County, CA alone, with 620 loans and $450.5 million for FY2017 to FY2026 and a rank of 147 of 928. A fifth of its loans are 504, 115 against 505 under 7(a), and the 504 list is spread across more holders than in many small metros: Bay Area Employment Development Company holds 36 loans worth $34.3 million, The Mortgage Capital Development Corporation 27 worth $29.9 million and Capital Access Group, Inc. 22 worth $17.2 million, with Greater Sacramento Certified Development Corporation at 8 and Business Finance Capital at 7.

The median loan is $347,250, which is 1.67x the national level, and loans between $100,000 and $781,950 sit in the middle of the range; franchise brands appear in 13.2%. Full-service restaurant leads the tracked classes at 36 loans, limited-service restaurant has 24, and hotel and motel 23, a high placing. Automotive mechanical repair shows 17, gas station and truck stop 14, and dental office and child care center 12 each. Assisted living reaches 6, and 422 loans sit outside the tracked classes.

Holders on the 7(a) side

These holders are named by SBA as holding or having held loans, nothing more. U.S. Bank, National Association holds 65 7(a) loans worth $20.8 million and Wells Fargo Bank National Association 56 worth $10.0 million. Columbia Bank (OR) and BayFirst National Bank hold 23 each, with $17.4 million for the first and $4.1 million for the second; BMO Bank National Association holds 21 worth $11.1 million.

Cancellation after approval is 14.1% or more of approvals through FY2024, a high floor. Vallejo has no published ceiling for that measure and no five-year charge-off rate, since the cohorts behind them are small; neither is estimated here or treated as zero. Charge-offs to date are 3.9% across 230 funded loans. The year FY2026 was the largest on record at 89 loans and $77.3 million, while FY2020 fell to 38 loans.

What a Vallejo study has to test

Work for Vallejo ought to test demand in the Solano County submarket, and should be built to survive the first test a lender applies, which is whether the loan will actually close, given how often approvals here fall away. Cost, debt service coverage and the appraisal follow. Where 504 financing is contemplated, the study can name the structure's real estate component plainly. The 2023 delineation sets county lines. Treat it as background for lenders and borrowers; it commits no one to anything.