Skilled Nursing Feasibility Study in Arizona

Arizona uses SBA for skilled nursing more than the country as a whole. Its location quotient is 1.76x, it ranks 8 of 48 among states, and 26 loans between FY2017 and FY2026 total $21.2 million. Within Arizona, though, nursing homes rank 24 of 39 among asset classes, so the class is an important niche rather than a core sector. The median loan, $568,500, is 0.85x the national median; the middle half spans $306,500 to $886,250, a narrow band by the standards of institutional care. The distinctive feature is the near parity of the programs, not the size.

Programs, franchises and counties

Of the 26 loans, 15 sit in 7(a) and 11 in 504, which means a large minority financed real property under the fixed-asset program. Franchising reaches 7.7% of loans. No lender table is available for this cell, so none is named. By county, MARICOPA has 14 loans, YAVAPAI 4, PIMA 3, COCONINO 2, and APACHE, GILA and PINAL 1 each. Over half of loans are in the Phoenix county, which is the usual pattern, but Yavapai's four loans, in a smaller retiree-oriented market, are worth noticing.

Uneven years and a recent pickup

FY2018 had a single loan worth $5.0 million, while FY2022 had none and $0. FY2019 had 4 loans and $1.8 million, FY2021 had 4 loans and $4.1 million, and FY2023 had 4 loans and $2.5 million. FY2026 closed on 2026-09-30 and shows 6 loans worth $3.6 million, the highest count in the series. Cancellation and charge-off floors are not shown, since the cohort is below 30 loans and any percentage would swing on one case; blanks are suppressed values, not zeros.

What the study for an Arizona facility must show

The same industry code takes in inpatient hospices and assisted living that includes nursing, so some loans here may fund a different product from a traditional nursing home, and a project must be specific about which it is. The study has to measure demand from the older population in the county, existing licensed beds and any pending supply, and the share of residents who rely on public payers. With a quotient above the national figure, the market may already be well served, and the study should look for gaps in a particular submarket rather than assuming growth carries every project. Construction or acquisition cost should sit within a ticket that usually lands near $568,500, debt service coverage should be tested at stabilized census after a realistic fill-up, and the appraisal should treat real estate and operating business separately.