Restaurant Feasibility Study in Washington

Washington's full-service restaurant lending is concentrated in one county. King County accounts for 440 of the approvals, against 158 for Pierce, 96 for Snohomish, 62 for Spokane and 49 for Thurston. Across the state SBA approved 1,092 loans worth $556.9 million from FY2017 to FY2026, ranking Washington 12 of 54 among states. Washington's SBA lending has no bigger class by count: restaurants rank 1 of 39, and a location quotient of 1.27x gives them more weight in Washington SBA lending than the class has nationally.

Size, lenders and franchise share

Washington's median loan, $323,500, is 1.18x the national figure for full-service restaurants, and half of all loans sit between $135,000 and $626,250. Franchise units are 5.4% of loans, so independents dominate. King County's 440 approvals out of 1,092 mean a site outside it has fewer local precedents in this record, which a study should say plainly. KeyBank National Association holds 111 of the 7(a) loans worth $55.3 million, Columbia Bank 76, U.S. Bank, National Association 75, Banner Bank 60 and GBC International Bank 55 worth $28.3 million. On the 504 side, Evergreen Business Capital holds 21, Northwest Business Development Association 20 and Ameritrust CDC 16. KeyBank's lead is a count of Washington loans it holds today, per SBA. SBA 7(a) carries 1,032 loans and SBA 504 carries 60.

Where approvals fall away

Cancellation is the figure a borrower should plan around: a floor of 14.2% of FY2017 to FY2024 approvals and a ceiling of 14.7%. The charge-off floor is 4.5% across 467 loans disbursed in FY2017 to FY2021, with 2.4% charged off within five years. Approvals fell from 143 in FY2019 to 60 in FY2021 and reached 129 and $78.6 million in FY2026.

What a Washington restaurant study must test

A King County site needs demand testing block by block, with covers and average check tested against every competitor within walking distance. Outside King County, the study must show the local market can support another full-service operator at all. Cost testing must price the build or refit and equipment from bids. In Washington the coverage ratio should survive a slow first year. To close, the borrower should have the lease and permits settled before approval, given the cancellation floor. Where property is part of the loan, its appraisal should not depend on a restaurant tenant staying.