Restaurant Feasibility Study in the St. Louis, MO-IL Metro Area

Sizing up 204 St. Louis, MO loans

Measured against the full-service restaurant class nationally and the St. Louis, MO area as a whole, its loan size is the St. Louis departure. Over FY2017 to FY2026, St. Louis applicants in full-service restaurant received 204 approvals worth $115.1 million. The median loan stands at $350,000, with the middle half spanning $162,500 to $688,250. Set against the national median for full-service restaurant, St. Louis, MO stands at 1.27x, which is above it.

St. Louis against the nation at 0.92x

7(a) is the larger program in St. Louis: 183 loans in 7(a), 21 in 504. The 21 504 loans in St. Louis finance fixed assets, and the 183 under 7(a) can reach working capital or a business purchase. 8.8% of St. Louis loans went to franchised units. Full-service restaurant is 1 of 39 among classes inside St. Louis and St. Louis is 33 of 821 among areas for it. A location quotient of 0.92x leaves full-service restaurant lighter in St. Louis than nationwide, which may signal room or weak demand. By county, St. Louis County, MO leads with 56 loans, then St. Louis city, MO with 48 and St. Charles County, MO with 34. St. Louis, MO is not a one-state market: IL, MO all fall inside it.

Who holds the 204 St. Louis loans

By year, FY2022 tops the series with 26 loans and $19.5 million, while FY2026 trails with 15 and $10.8 million. St. Louis 7(a) holders, ranked by loans: Midwest Regional Bank, 28 loans, $17.4 million; U.S. Bank, National Association, 13 loans, $472,000; American Bank of Freedom, 12 loans, $10.9 million. Read Midwest Regional Bank's 28 loans as SBA's file of a book, not advice about Midwest Regional Bank, and weigh the $17.4 million the same way. SBA 504 loans in St. Louis are listed to 11 loans and $7.7 million at Small Business Growth Corporation. Cancellation after approval is at least 10.8%, a floor; the ceiling that would count undisbursed loans is withheld and gets no number. In St. Louis, 82 disbursed loans yield (204 loans in all) a charge-off floor of 7.3%; the five-year rate is withheld.

The St. Louis study: demand, cost, coverage, appraisal at $688,250

The St. Louis, MO market test weighs how often a table turns, lunch and dinner traffic and household dining spend, trade area by trade area across St. Louis. A sound St. Louis budget lists buildout, occupancy and opening inventory, then probes each line against St. Louis, MO comparables. Stress St. Louis, MO earnings with a $162,500 loan and a $688,250 loan, then check where coverage weakens. St. Louis appraisers will value the kitchen equipment, the building and the lease one at a time, so the St. Louis, MO study ought to do the same. The $115.1 million St. Louis, MO file (in St. Louis, MO) is a yardstick, not a forecast in St. Louis, and promises no St. Louis applicant approval.

Limits behind 204 St. Louis loans

Placement of 204 St. Louis loans runs on the project county. Matching St. Louis County, MO and its neighbors to St. Louis uses names under the July 2023 delineation. Rates in St. Louis name their own cohort years around St. Louis, so cancellation and charge-off differ (median $350,000) in span.