Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Green Bay, WI Metro Area

First class, near parity

In Green Bay, sit-down restaurants lead all 39 asset classes, and a quotient of 1.05x leaves them almost exactly at their national share. Nationally the area is 125 of 821. The metro's record stands at 38 approvals worth $22.6 million, FY2017 through FY2026. Brown County holds 32 of them.

Large for the class

A midpoint of $401,500 is 1.46x the class's benchmark elsewhere, and loans of ordinary size fall between $147,000 and $636,000. By program, 7(a) has 30 loans and 504 has 8, a share of 504 that points to some projects including real estate. Franchise share is 15.8%, so the record is mostly independent restaurants.

Holders

Bank First, N.A. is listed on 5 loans worth $2.6 million and Nicolet National Bank on 5 worth $1.8 million, as the holders SBA reports now. Bank First's average is the higher of the two, though five loans each is too few to read a lending pattern into either. Brown County provides most of the activity, so a site elsewhere in the metro has fewer comparable loans to draw on.

Two printed years in Brown County

Two years can be printed: FY2017 with 6 loans and $1.2 million, and FY2019 with 5 and $1.9 million. Loan Analytics hides every other year. A cohort under 30 loans gets no cancellation rate from Loan Analytics, and the charge-off rate is also withheld. Neither is a zero, and neither can be read as a sign of low loss.

Studying a Green Bay restaurant

A study should test how demand varies through the week and the year, look at competing restaurants and the price expectations they set, and size the dining room against the realistic number of covers on a weeknight rather than a peak day. Build-out cost against a loan near $401,500, labor cost and the lease should each have a line. If the plan includes buying the building, the building deserves its own valuation line, since 504 is in the record. Payments should be covered in a slow month, and the appraiser should separate the business from the property. The 38 approvals are a small base, so the study should name comparable loans only within the $147,000 to $636,000 band and treat a request outside it as needing its own evidence.