Feasibility Study Data for the Lancaster, PA Metro Area

Heavy cancellations, light charge-offs

Lancaster, a single-county record, shows 792 loans and $467.9 million across FY2017 to FY2026, ranking 123 of 928. The contrast between its floors is the defining feature: cancellations of approved loans reach 12.6% as a floor for FY2024 and earlier approvals and 13.7% once undisbursed loans are added, while charge-offs are only 3.1% to date and 1.4% within five years, across 351 funded loans. Loans here tend to be dropped before they fund rather than to fail afterward, though open loans can still add to the lower figures.

The median loan of $224,500 is 1.08x the national median, so Lancaster lands near the national norm. Franchise brands account for 15.5% of loans, and the central half of them runs from $53,625 to $580,250. Limited-service restaurant leads the named classes with 41 loans, narrowly ahead of full-service restaurant at 39, then fitness center at 23 and hotel and motel at 21. Beverage manufacturing has 13, a visible craft-production presence, and there are 565 loans in no tracked class.

Holders and the two programmes

SBA reports the holders of record, which locate loans without describing any lender's behaviour. Of the total, 710 loans are 7(a) and 82 are 504. Under 7(a), Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company is holder of 106 loans worth $15.4 million, Mid Penn Bank 47, Community First Capital Corp 46 worth $6.2 million, Fulton Bank, National Association 43 worth $36.9 million and Orrstown Bank 33 worth $22.0 million. For 504, EDC Finance Corporation holds 55 loans and $59.3 million, while Empire State Certified Development Corporation has only 13.

Approvals slid from 91 loans in FY2018 to 60 in FY2023 before rising to 103 loans and $69.2 million in FY2025. The mid-period trough matters for anyone using past closings as a guide to current appetite.

What a study should test

A study for a Lancaster project must show demand in the county, test whether the use is already well supplied, and place cost against loan sizes near that norm. Because cancellation is the larger risk, the study should address whether financing can be completed on schedule, and then show debt service coverage and an appraisal that hold up. The 2023 delineation sets county lines. Lenders and borrowers can use it as context; it assures no one of an approval.