Gas Station Feasibility Study in the Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH Metro Area

Gas stations and truck stops in the Boston-Cambridge-Newton area are a thin slice of a very large metro. The FY2017 to FY2026 record is 70 approvals for $31.4 million, with the area at 15 of 600 in the metro and micro ranking, and gas stations come in at 14 of 39 in the metro's class ranking. At 0.41x, the location quotient is well under parity. The median loan is $187,000, only 0.18x the class median nationwide, which puts typical borrowing here far under the national level.

Counties, programs and holders

Middlesex County, MA leads with 23 loans, then Norfolk County, MA with 14, Rockingham County, NH with 12, Essex County, MA with 8 and Plymouth County, MA with 7. The middle half runs from $86,025 to $541,250. Under 7(a) there are 48 loans, under 504 there are 22, and the franchise share of loans is 12.9%. Eastern Bank leads by count at 17 loans, $1.9 million in all, and TD Bank, National Association has 7 for $325,000, both small-ticket holdings. The development companies look different: Granite State Economic Development Corporation has 10 loans at $5.2 million, and New England Certified Development Corporation 7 at $4.8 million, far larger averages per loan.

Volume, floors and withheld cells

Volume peaked in FY2022 at 13 loans for $3.1 million. FY2023 had 10 loans for $7.4 million, the heaviest dollar year shown, and FY2024 had 9 loans for $4.8 million. Earlier years show 6 loans and $2.0 million in FY2017, 6 loans and $2.2 million in FY2018 and 10 loans and $3.9 million in FY2019. Loan Analytics withholds the four years FY2020, FY2021, FY2025 and FY2026, and the charge-off rate, which has fewer than 30 loans behind it; none of these is zero. Cancellation after approval is at least 16.4% for FY2017 to FY2024 approvals, and the stricter measure counting undisbursed loans gives the same 16.4%.

What a fuel-site study has to test

Gas stations without a convenience store share the class with truck stops and travel centers, and a charging site for electric vehicles has no index entry at all, so any study must define the exact format being financed. Traffic counts, curb cuts and rival stations along the same corridor come first. Environmental history of the site is a threshold issue for any fuel use, and tank condition and remediation exposure belong in the cost test. At a median of $187,000, a study has to name which it is financing, an existing station or a new site. Debt service should be run on fuel margin plus store sales, with fuel price swings stressed, and the appraiser has to split real estate, equipment and business value.