Coffee Shop Feasibility Study in Idaho

Idaho coffee shops: small loans, many franchises

Coffee shops and snack bars weigh more heavily in Idaho's SBA lending than nationally (location quotient 1.28x), and the class is Idaho's 6 of 39 by loan count. The state's 107 approvals worth $34.0 million from FY2017 to FY2026 place it 25 of 53 among states. A typical Idaho loan is modest: the median of $185,000 equals 0.77x the class's national median. None of the cancellation, charge-off or median figures is an outlier, so this cell is defined by weight and format rather than by any single figure.

Franchise share and the Idaho lenders

Franchised outlets hold 37.4% of Idaho's coffee loans. Of the Idaho loans, 98 went through SBA 7(a) and 9 through SBA 504. Zions Bancorporation, National Association leads with 19 loans for $6.3 million, and Idaho Central CU holds 15 worth a larger $8.5 million; Glacier Bank (10), U.S. Bank, National Association (8) and Columbia Bank (6) follow. Idaho's central half of loans runs $84,500 to $385,300. Ada County has 36 loans, and Bonneville, Canyon and Kootenai have 12 each, with Bannock at 10. Lending has picked up lately: FY2025 and FY2026 brought 17 and 18 loans, against 6 in each of FY2019 and FY2020.

Thin cohorts, real losses

Idaho's cancellation floor is 16.7% for FY2017 to FY2024 approvals, climbing to 19.4% if loans still undisbursed are counted. The loss cohort is small, 32 loans funded FY2017 to FY2021, just above our 30-loan threshold, and 6.3% of it is charged off to date, 3.1% inside five years. Small samples swing, and open loans can still fail, so read these as floors with wide error. For a borrower, cancellation and loss both point to execution risk: build-out, staffing and the opening ramp. For a lender, a small loan to an Idaho coffee operator rests on the operator's experience and the site's traffic more than on collateral.

An Idaho coffee study has to measure the site first: morning traffic counts, the side of the road commuters use, queuing room if a drive-through is planned, and the competing shops a few minutes away. Cost needs the equipment package, the build-out and any franchise obligations priced. Debt service coverage should be modelled on first-year ticket counts and average ticket, not on a mature store. Should the Idaho deal include real estate, its appraisal must reflect a small pad a lender could re-let to another food or retail user. The class carries no coding caveat; lender names reflect each loan's current holder.