Child Care Center Feasibility Study in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area

Below the national weight, yet at the national loan size

At 0.65x on the location quotient, San Diego child care centers weigh less in local SBA lending than nationally; the loans themselves are ordinary, with a $480,000 median at 1.06x the national level and a central band of $155,500 to $901,725. The area is twenty-ninth of 493 for the class and centers are ninth of 39 locally. SBA approved 78 loans worth $48.6 million between FY2017 and FY2026, all in San Diego County.

Under SBA 7(a) sit 69 of the loans, with 9 more under SBA 504. The franchise share of this cell is held back by Loan Analytics, so this page cannot say how many borrowers join a branded model. The class carries a data limit as well. Home-based providers cannot be told apart from centers, since a single industry code covers both, so a few smaller loans may belong to home operators.

Four holders

SBA lists, in order, Wells Fargo Bank National Association (10 loans, $3.4 million), U.S. Bank, National Association (8, $3.2 million), Enterprise Bank & Trust (5, $3.1 million), and CDC Small Business Finance Corp., also 5, for $1.0 million. Enterprise's loans are several times as large on average as CDC's. These are present holders in SBA's records and give no sight of any lender's requirements.

San Diego lost 10.9% or more of its FY2017 through FY2024 approvals before funding. Loan Analytics withholds four things for the San Diego cell: a cancellation ceiling, a loss rate, and the loan counts and dollars for FY2017 and for FY2019, each resting on a handful of loans; a withheld value is blank, never zero. Approvals shown start at 6 in FY2018 and reach 15 in FY2024, worth $13.8 million, then 16 in FY2025, worth $8.7 million.

What a San Diego child care study must test

Licensed capacity and enrollment are the center of the case. The trade area's children by age band come first, then competing centers with their waiting lists, then the staffing ratios that licensing sets for each age group, which the payroll budget has to follow. Tuition must be set against what local families can pay, and the model should show the ramp from opening to full enrollment. The site and the lease need their own cost line. Should the borrower buy or build, the appraisal needs to separate building from business. Only loans with a county found on the July 2023 list make it into the San Diego counts.