SBA 7(a) Restaurant Feasibility Study in Arizona

Arizona is a Maricopa story

Arizona restaurants took 429 SBA 7(a) loans worth $266.4 million between FY2017 and FY2026, and one county dominates: Maricopa has 289 loans, against 40 in Pima, 31 in Yavapai, 17 in Mohave and 12 in Coconino. Within Arizona, full-service dining outranks every other class, first of 39, and the state itself ranks 21 for the program. The median loan of $350,000 is 1.42x the median 7(a) restaurant borrowers receive elsewhere, with a central band of $150,000 to $750,000, so Arizona restaurants borrow more than their peers elsewhere.

Lenders

Two banks tie at 28 loans: JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association with $15.3 million and Newtek Bank, National Association with $10.9 million. Northeast Bank holds 23 for $4.1 million, Wells Fargo Bank National Association 21 for $14.3 million and The Huntington National Bank 19 for $9.7 million. No lender holds a dominant share, unlike in several larger states. As SBA records it, each loan sits with its current holder, so this is the shape of holdings, not of appetite. Franchise loans are 12.1%.

Floors

Arizona cancellations came to 11.7% minimum of FY2017 to FY2024 approvals, and 12.3% counting undisbursed loans. Among 170 loans from FY2017 to FY2021, 5.3% are charged off so far, 2.9% inside five years.

Shape of the years

Approvals fell to 20 loans in FY2020 and climbed to 63 loans and $41.3 million in FY2026, the strongest recent year. Volume has therefore more than recovered, which makes the cohort floors above worth reading alongside the newest approvals, since recent loans have had little time to show a result.

Testing an Arizona dining plan

A study for an Arizona full-service restaurant should test seasonality, since winter visitors and summer heat change patio use and covers; the trade area in Maricopa's many submarkets versus a smaller town; occupancy cost; and a labour plan. With the median above the national level, the project cost should be shown line by line so that a lender can see where a typical $350,000 goes, and what happens at the top of the range. Coverage should hold in a slow quarter, and the appraisal needs to treat leasehold improvements and equipment honestly.