SBA 7(a) Grocery Store Feasibility Study in Missouri

Missouri grocers borrow at one and three-fifths of the norm

Missouri's grocery loans are larger than the national pattern. The midpoint of $506,500 is 1.63x the national 7(a) grocery midpoint, for 38 loans worth $28.9 million, and the middle half reaches from $194,000 to $1.1 million. Franchised loans are 15.8%. Missouri ranks 21 among states by count, though the class lands 17 of 39 in Missouri's own ranking, a mid-table borrower.

A single named holder and a spread map

The holder table names just Commerce Bank, 5 loans and $2.4 million, as SBA lists it. The counties are scattered: Saint Louis with 4 loans, Barry and Jackson with 3, and Buchanan, Greene, Hickory, Lafayette, Lincoln, Morgan and Saint Louis City with 2 each. FY2017 was the strongest year with 9 loans and $9.0 million, and FY2024 and FY2025 produced 1 each. FY2018 had 5 loans worth $2.0 million, FY2019 and FY2020 had 3 each, FY2021 had 2 worth $3.4 million, FY2022 had 6 worth $4.2 million, FY2023 had 4 worth $1.6 million, and FY2026 had 4 worth $2.9 million.

Cancellation floors, and the missing loss rate

Missouri grocery approvals dated through FY2024 show cancellation of at least 6.1%, ceiling identical. Loan Analytics does not print a loss rate here, since the funded cohort holds under 30 loans. We offer no figure, and no inference should be drawn from the gap. Rates are floors, and approvals made since FY2024 are not yet in them.

What a Missouri grocery study has to show

A grocery study starts with the catchment: it should state the population it serves, the distance to the next store and the dollars of food spending that stay local. In the metros it should name the chains and discounters nearby and show a differentiating reason for shoppers to switch. With a midpoint this high, the study should state the price basis, the inventory at cost, the equipment condition and the working capital to open. Test sales per square foot and gross margin against the plan. Coverage should hold if sales run below plan in a first year. The appraisal must value the building and fixtures separately from the going concern.