SBA 7(a) Restaurant Feasibility Study in Missouri

Missouri's full-service dining under 7(a)

Sit-down dining tops the Missouri class table of 39, while the state ranks 20th for number of these loans. The file shows 444 approvals between FY2017 and FY2026, worth $205.2 million. Franchising accounts for 9.9% of those loans, so owner-run dining rooms dominate. A median of $249,050 is 1.01x the nationwide 7(a) figure, so Missouri sits on the national line, and the loans in the central band run from $119,000 to $500,000.

A balanced geography

Few states spread restaurant lending as evenly as this cell does across a handful of areas. Jackson County leads with 63 loans and Greene follows closely with 61, then Saint Louis County with 50 and Saint Louis City with 46. Saint Charles has 32, Boone 30 and Taney 22, the last being resort country. So Kansas City, Springfield, St. Louis and the college and tourist counties all take part, not one metro alone. The yearly count has held between 37 and 53 loans, never collapsing: FY2021 saw 50 loans and $28.9 million, and FY2026 38 loans.

Lenders

OakStar Bank and Midwest Regional Bank each hold 28 loans in the listing, followed by U.S. Bank, National Association with 23, and Simmons Bank and The Bank of Missouri with 19 each. SBA shows the present holder of each, so the tallies carry no policy message. The flat top of the table, with no lender above 28, is itself a feature of the Missouri file.

Loss floors

Cancellation was 10.4% for approvals from FY2017 to FY2024, with the same 10.4% when undisbursed loans are counted. The more telling figures sit in the charge-off record: of the 202 loans that funded across FY2017 to FY2021, 9.9% have been charged off, with 7.9% lost inside five years. As floors these are on the heavy side, and the record cannot tell us the cause.

Testing a Missouri dining room

The study should decide first whether the dining room serves a metro, a college town or a seasonal destination, because each needs a different forecast of covers. It should test seating and check average against the competition, itemise renovation and equipment against a loan near $249,050, and say who owns the building. A model that holds coverage of debt payments after a weaker season and higher food cost is the minimum, and the appraisal of the going concern will turn on whether the sales history or projection can be traced.