Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Metro Area

Cancellation sets South Florida restaurants apart

The cancellation rate is the measure that separates this cell from its parents. For FY2017 to FY2024 approvals, at least 20.7% of full-service restaurant loans around Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach were cancelled after approval, and the ceiling reaches 23.8% when approvals still waiting to disburse count as cancelled. A borrower or lender should read that as a sign that many approved restaurant deals here never closed, and a study should ask why: price, lease terms or permits.

The wider record is large: 447 approvals and $368.7 million, a market that ranks 15 of 821 nationally for this class, with restaurants first among 39 classes locally. Yet the location quotient is only 0.50x, so restaurants are a thinner slice of SBA lending here than the national mix. Loans are heavy. The median is $414,500, which is 1.51x the national class median, with $125,850 to $1.1 million covering half of all loans. SBA 7(a) took 399 loans and SBA 504 took 48; franchised units are 9.8%.

Lenders and counties

In SBA 7(a), TD Bank, National Association counts 45 loans yet only $3.6 million. Newtek Bank, National Association has 36 loans and $23.6 million, Newtek Small Business Finance, LLC 21 and $21.8 million, Readycap Lending, LLC 20 and Truist Bank 19 with $27.6 million. Among SBA 504 lenders, Florida First Capital Finance Corporation, Inc. shows 26 loans and $46.0 million, and Florida Business Development Corporation 22 loans and $31.8 million. These counts are SBA's records of what each institution holds or held, so they say nothing of its practices. Three counties carry the record: Miami-Dade County, FL with 181 loans, Broward County, FL with 138 and Palm Beach County, FL with 128.

Losses follow the same hard pattern. The loss floor is 10.4% on 134 loans disbursed in FY2017 through FY2021; the five-year figure is withheld and left blank here. Approvals climbed from 38 loans in FY2017 to 72 in FY2024 and again in FY2025, then fell to 47 in FY2026. Dollars rose from $15.1 million to $83.6 million at the FY2024 peak. County matching under the 2023 delineation decides what appears above, and unmatched loans fall out of every metro.

Testing a Miami restaurant project

Because deals fail between approval and closing, a study here should test the lease, permits and equity injection early, and show a lender the price of delay. It should also price the build-out against a $414,500 median, test seasonal demand against resident demand, and check that debt service coverage survives a slow quarter. The appraisal covers the leasehold or the real estate. The 447 approvals above are context and never a promise of approval; they bind no lender. Each project is judged on its own, and the 20.7% floor is a reason to confirm the lease and the equity before a lender is asked to rely on an approval.