Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY Metro Area

Restaurants are the top asset class in the Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh area, ranking 1 of 39, yet it ranks only 71 of 821 areas, metro and micro together, by full-service restaurant loan count. At 0.81x the quotient sits beneath parity, so restaurants are the leading class here without being heavier than the national share. Across FY2017 to FY2026 there are 73 approvals totaling $25.1 million. The median of $150,000 is 0.55x the national median for the class, so the typical loan here is about half the national class median.

Dutchess and Orange counties, and who holds the loans

Dutchess and Orange carry the record: Dutchess County, NY with 41 loans and Orange County, NY with 32. Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company holds 15 loans totaling $2.6 million, and KeyBank National Association holds 9 totaling $1.9 million, both modest averages that match the small-ticket nature of the book. The center of the size distribution spans $50,000 to $495,000. Under 7(a) there are 63 loans and under 504 there are 10.

Trend and loss floors

Annual volume was uneven, with 12 loans and $6.0 million in FY2018, 7 loans and $4.6 million in FY2019, 10 loans and $3.0 million in FY2021 and 10 loans and $3.6 million in FY2023. FY2024 added 10 loans for $2.1 million, FY2025 7 loans for $1.4 million and FY2026 7 loans for $2.5 million. Cancelled approvals have a floor of 15.3% for the FY2017 to FY2024 vintages, and treating undisbursed loans as cancelled changes nothing. Loan Analytics withholds the franchise share, the charge-off rate and the FY2017, FY2020 and FY2022 rows, each resting on too few loans, and none is zero. Remember that the page reflects what SBA records for loans in these counties, assigned to the area by the July 2023 definitions.

What a restaurant study here must test

The study has to answer why a restaurant should succeed in a market where the class is first by count but light by share. Trade-area work should look at the draw of each downtown corridor and the seasonal pattern of visitors, and should count competing seats rather than rely on a general sense of demand. Build-out and kitchen cost should be tested against the lower median that this area records, because an over-built concept will not fit a typical note here. Debt service coverage needs a conservative sales ramp, a labor line that reflects local wages and a rent assumption tied to a real lease. An appraiser will separate going-concern value from real estate value, and a lender will want that line drawn.