Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Fort Collins-Loveland, CO Metro Area

First class, with large tickets

Full-service restaurants are the top-ranked class among the 39 in the Fort Collins-Loveland area, though the area is 114 of 821 nationally and a quotient of 0.81x puts the class below its national weight. The record holds 43 approvals worth $32.7 million across FY2017 through FY2026, and a midpoint of $492,500 runs 1.79x the national figure for the class, so these are weighty loans for restaurants.

Where tickets land

Typical loans run from $234,000 to $1.1 million, a range that covers conversions through to ground-up buildings. Under 7(a) there are 37 loans, under 504 there are 6, and franchise share is 11.6%, so independents carry the record. Larimer County accounts for all 43 loans.

The cancellation figure

Cancellations after approval came to 15.2% at minimum for FY2017 through FY2024 approvals; the stricter ceiling that adds undisbursed loans gives the same figure. Treat it as a floor, not a full count of lost projects, and as a reminder that some approved restaurants never open. Charge-offs go unreported the cohort having fewer than 30 loans, and that missing figure is not a nil.

Years

The years that can be shown: FY2019, with 6 loans and $9.4 million; FY2020, with 6 and $892,100; and FY2022, with 5 and $4.8 million. FY2019's average is far above FY2020's, which shows how a handful of large projects can swing a year in a small market. SBA hides the other years. Holder names do not appear, since no single lender reaches the threshold. A restaurateur reading this page should therefore look at Colorado pages for lender context.

Studying a northern Colorado restaurant

A study should start with the university and tourism calendar, which shape demand in a way a generic market does not, then test the competing restaurants on the same corridors and the dining spend of the trade area. Construction cost along the Front Range, labor cost and wage pressure, and the lease deserve a place in the analysis. With a midpoint near half a million dollars, the study should explain whether the project is a build-out, an acquisition or new construction. The payment should be covered through a slow opening, and the appraiser must treat the business and the real estate as two things.