Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Asheville, NC Metro Area

Asheville restaurants carry more weight than the national pattern: a location quotient of 1.54x, with restaurants first of 39 in the area's own classes. In the national ladder, however, the area is only 87 of 821, because a single mid-sized market cannot rival the largest metros. The 60 approvals across FY2017 to FY2026 total $26.7 million. A median of $195,000 amounts to 0.71x the national figure for the class, while central loans range between $57,500 and $580,050.

Buncombe County and the lender list

Buncombe County, NC is the project county for 50 loans, so this is effectively a one-county story. Mountain Bizcapital, Inc. is listed with 11 loans for $1.6 million, TD Bank, National Association with 7 for $1.7 million, First National Bank of Pennsylvania with 6 for $1.9 million and, finally, PNC Bank, National Association, 5 for $793,400. Program choice leans to 7(a), at 55 loans, against 5 for 504, and franchise units are 8.3% of loans.

Trend and loss floors

Ten loans and $3.1 million came in FY2017, 11 loans and $3.9 million in FY2018, and 6 loans each in FY2019 and FY2020, at $2.2 million and $575,700. FY2021 had 5 loans yet $9.0 million, an unusually large average, and FY2023 had 6 loans and $1.7 million. FY2022 and FY2024 through FY2026 are masked. Cancellations touched at least 10.0% of approvals from FY2017 to FY2024, and counting loans still undisbursed leaves that figure as it was. The loss rate on charge-offs is masked and cannot be taken for zero.

Seasons, districts and the study

Asheville's draw is tourism and a strong local dining culture, and the study should separate year-round resident demand from seasonal visitors, since cash flow will swing between them. It should name the competing concepts in the project's own district, whether downtown, the River Arts District or the suburban commercial strips, and count their seating. Cost should be set against the $195,000 median; a larger figure invites a lender to ask why. Test the loan payment against a winter month and a slow first year. An owned building needs its own appraisal, and flood exposure along the rivers deserves a check. Counties follow the July 2023 definitions.