Restaurant Feasibility Study in Alaska

Alaska restaurants: top of the state's list, bottom of the national one

Sit-down dining holds first place among Alaska's asset classes, 1 of 39, yet the 54 loans approved over FY2017 to FY2026, worth $31.1 million, place Alaska 51 of 54 among states, simply because Alaska is small. The location quotient of 0.91x says the share is close to the national share. Loans run larger than elsewhere: a median of $348,500 is 1.27x the national midpoint for restaurants of this type, and most requests run from $150,000 to $734,250. That is a comfortable range for a kitchen build-out, equipment and opening inventory.

The cancellation record is the standout

Approvals from FY2017 to FY2024 saw just 2.3% cancelled, with an identical ceiling, and that comfortably clears our distinctness screen. In plain terms, when SBA approves a restaurant loan in Alaska, the money almost always flows. Borrowers face fewer surprises between approval and closing, and a lender can plan a closing calendar with some confidence. No charge-off percentage appears for Alaska, since fewer loans than the publication floor were disbursed in that cohort; the blank is no evidence of zero.

Lenders, programs and places

Program split: 42 loans under 7(a) and 12 under 504, with 9.3% franchised. Four 7(a) lenders clear the five-loan line: Northrim Bank with 8 loans and $3.5 million, KeyBank National Association with 7 and $2.9 million, Alaska Growth Capital BIDCO, Inc. with 6 and $4.8 million, and, last of the four, Wells Fargo Bank National Association with 5 loans and $3.7 million. Anchorage has 31 loans, the Kenai Peninsula 8, Fairbanks North Star 5, and Juneau 3. Annual counts peaked at 9 loans in FY2023 and eased to 2 loans and $494,000 in FY2026.

What an Alaska restaurant study has to test

Alaska adds cost and seasonality that a template from the contiguous states misses. A study should test year-round resident demand against tourist-season peaks, labour and housing for staff, and freight on food and equipment. Construction cost deserves its own contingency, and equipment arrives by barge or air freight on a schedule that can slip. Coverage must hold through the winter trough, and the appraisal should reflect what a replacement operator would pay for the space.