Quick Service Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN Metro Area

A two-state area where franchising rules

The Louisville/Jefferson County area crosses the Kentucky and Indiana line, and the record covers both sides. Between FY2017 and FY2026 SBA approved 73 limited-service restaurant loans here, worth $36.2 million in gross dollars. Within the area the class is 2 of 39 by volume, and the area is 50 of 779 for quick service loans nationally. Its location quotient is 1.09x, a mild tilt toward the class. Franchise units are 60.3% of loans, so most of the lending here finances units of a recognised system. The median loan is $267,000, or 0.86x the national median for the class.

Loan sizes and who holds them

The middle half of loan amounts begins at $100,000 and ends at $623,000. The split by program is held back here, so there is no count for SBA 7(a) or SBA 504. Among 7(a) loans, SBA lists Stock Yards Bank & Trust Company as current holder of 10 loans worth $680,100, German American Bank of 5 loans worth $2.7 million, and Wilson & Muir Bank & Trust Company of 5 loans worth $1.5 million. Each line reflects what SBA recorded about loans in a lender's hands, past or present, and implies no view of the lender's practice. Jefferson County, KY accounts for 50 loans, with Clark County, IN and Floyd County, IN at 6 each.

Yearly counts were 6 loans in FY2017 at $2.1 million, 11 in FY2018 at $4.8 million, 6 in FY2020 at $3.3 million, 9 in FY2021 at $2.8 million, 7 in FY2023 at $3.0 million, 9 in FY2024 at $6.4 million, 9 in FY2025 at $3.3 million and 7 in FY2026 at $7.8 million. Counts for FY2019 and FY2022 are held back, since too few loans lie behind them. Among FY2017 to FY2024 approvals, at least 10.5% were cancelled after approval, and counting the still-undisbursed as cancelled leaves that figure unchanged. The charge-off rate is withheld. A loan is assigned to an area by the county of its project, read against the July 2023 map.

Testing a Louisville quick service unit

Any study of a Louisville quick service unit has to separate franchise and independent economics, because the record is dominated by branded units. For a franchise, the test is whether the site's traffic, drive-through layout and the system's required build-out yield enough sales at a cost near the typical request. For an independent, the burden shifts to proving volume without system data. Either way the study must show debt service coverage under a slower opening case, check the competitive set on both sides of the river, and give the appraiser income evidence that matches the site. The history shown here is context, not a promise.