Grocery Store Feasibility Study in the San Juan-Bayamón-Caguas, PR Metro Area

Grocery lending with the highest local concentration of the lot

San Juan-Bayamón-Caguas shows a location quotient of 2.79x for grocery stores, which means food retail takes a share of local SBA lending well beyond what the national mix would give it. Locally the class is sixth, 6 of 39, and the metro is 14 of 412 in the national grocery table. The loans are small, though. A $135,000 median is only 0.38x of the class median nationwide, and the mid-range of tickets spans $68,625 to $269,275. Over FY2017 to FY2026 the record totals 62 loans and $14.3 million: a record of modest tickets.

Puerto Rico's grocery book has 45 loans through 7(a) and 17 through 504, a comparatively strong 504 side that suggests owners buying or improving their buildings. The franchise share is withheld on a thin cohort, so we give it no number, and we do not read it as zero. The grocery code covers a range of formats, which is why a study must state whether it tests a small neighborhood store, a mid-size market or a full supermarket.

Holders and municipios

Banco Popular de Puerto Rico leads 7(a) with 24 loans and $4.6 million, and Oriental Bank follows with 15 loans and $3.5 million. Under 504, Marketing Small Business Finance Corporation holds 9 loans and $2.2 million. All three entries are SBA's holder listings and judge no institution. Geography is by municipio: San Juan Municipio, PR has 8 loans, Toa Baja Municipio, PR 7, and Bayamón Municipio, PR and Canóvanas Municipio, PR 6 each, an unusually even spread across the metro.

San Juan grocery appears without cancellation or loss rates, SBA publishing none, so nothing on this page measures loss, and a blank is no zero. Only FY2023 prints among the years, with 9 loans and $1.6 million; FY2018 is also in the file, but every other year is held back. Puerto Rican loans reach the metro through the municipio of the project, using the July 2023 delineation.

Testing a San Juan area grocery project

A grocery study here should measure household counts and spending within walking and driving range, the presence of chains and independents, and supply logistics, including island supply logistics. Equipment, refrigeration and inventory belong in a budget tested against the $135,000 median. Sales per square foot and margin must carry debt service coverage, and the appraisal separates business value from the real estate. San Juan clients get a report signed by Daniel Smith, MAI, and the lender's decision remains the lender's.