Restaurant Feasibility Study in the San Juan-Bayamón-Caguas, PR Metro Area
What SBA's own loan files show about full-service restaurant lending in the San Juan-Bayamón-Caguas, PR Metro Area, and what a feasibility study for a project there has to test.
San Juan: full-service restaurant
SBA records 218 full-service restaurant loans for San Juan, with $45.9 million approved over the ten fiscal years FY2017 to FY2026. Nationally it stands 32nd of 821 for the class, and among San Juan's own 39 classes this one comes second. The location quotient is 1.27x, a heavier concentration than the national mix. A median of $100,000 sits at 0.36x the class median nationwide.
$100,000 in San Juan, well below the national median (0.36x), is its median; San Juan's middle half spans $35,400 to $264,625. Program choice in San Juan: 190 used 7(a), 28 used 504. 7.8% of the 218 loans went to franchisees.
San Juan's 7(a) table, 100 loans held by Banco Popular de Puerto Rico, $11.4 million; 49 held by Oriental Bank, $9.7 million; 31 held by FirstBank Puerto Rico, $6.2 million; 5 Economic Development Bank for Puerto Rico, $624,600. San Juan's 504 table, 8 loans held by PYMES Financial Partners, Inc., $4.4 million. San Juan leaves holders under 5 loans unnamed. San Juan counties, of 218 loans: San Juan Municipio, PR 103; Caguas Municipio, PR 17; Carolina Municipio, PR 15; Bayamón Municipio, PR 14; Guaynabo Municipio, PR 10; Luquillo Municipio, PR 6; Toa Baja Municipio, PR 6; Humacao Municipio, PR 5; Trujillo Alto Municipio, PR 5.
Outcome floors in San Juan and approvals
13.5% or more of San Juan approvals were cancelled by FY2024. San Juan's undisbursed-loan ceiling is withheld. San Juan charge-off floor: withheld, not zero. San Juan: the cohort is too small. San Juan open loans may raise floors. San Juan, moving from 19 loans and $1.7 million in FY2017, ended on 31 loans and $7.8 million in FY2026; the peak was 42 loans and $14.3 million in FY2024, the trough 14 in FY2022. Loans by year in San Juan: FY2017 19, FY2019 15, FY2020 17, FY2021 18, FY2022 14, FY2024 42, FY2025 32, FY2026 31. Dollars per year: FY2017 $1.7 million, FY2019 $4.1 million, FY2020 $2.2 million, FY2021 $3.9 million, FY2022 $3.1 million, FY2024 $14.3 million, FY2025 $3.8 million, FY2026 $7.8 million. Missing San Juan years are withheld, not zero.
San Juan: what a feasibility study must prove
A study should count rival restaurants by cuisine and test evening cover counts against the $100,000 median loan. It should show that debt service holds through slow months, and cost ventilation and kitchen work for any request outside the $35,400 to $264,625 middle half. Appraisers split the concept from the building, and the study should do the same. Approvals ran from 14 in FY2022 to 42 in FY2024, so a plan should allow for stalled years.
San Juan counts 218 loans by project county. San Juan borders follow the July 2023 delineation. San Juan omits counties it cannot place. 218 loans are a rough guide to San Juan, not a census.
SBA full-service restaurant loans in the San Juan-Bayamón-Caguas, PR Metro Area
| Loans approved, FY2017 to FY2026 | 218 |
|---|---|
| Gross dollars approved | $45.9 million |
| Median loan | $100,000 |
| Middle half of loans, from | $35,400 |
| Middle half of loans, to | $264,625 |
| SBA 7(a) loans | 190 |
| SBA 504 loans | 28 |
| Franchise share of loans | 7.8% |
| Rank among metro and micro areas for full-service restaurant loans | 32 of 821 |
| Rank of full-service restaurant among the classes in this area | 2 of 39 |
| Location quotient (share of loans against the national share) | 1.27x |
| Median loan against the national median for the class | 0.36x |
Cancellation and charge-off
| Cancelled after approval, FY2017 to FY2024 approvals (a floor) | 13.5% |
|---|---|
| The same, counting loans still undisbursed as cancelled (a ceiling) | withheld |
| Charged off to date, FY2017 to FY2021 disbursed loans (a floor) | withheld |
Both rates are floors. SBA withholds the status of open loans, so a loan counts as charged off only once SBA reports it; a rate needs at least 30 loans in its cohort and is otherwise not reported.
SBA full-service restaurant loans approved in the San Juan-Bayamón-Caguas, PR Metro Area, by fiscal year
| Fiscal year | Loans | Dollars |
|---|---|---|
| FY2017 | 19 | $1.7 million |
| FY2018 | withheld | withheld |
| FY2019 | 15 | $4.1 million |
| FY2020 | 17 | $2.2 million |
| FY2021 | 18 | $3.9 million |
| FY2022 | 14 | $3.1 million |
| FY2023 | withheld | withheld |
| FY2024 | 42 | $14.3 million |
| FY2025 | 32 | $3.8 million |
| FY2026 | 31 | $7.8 million |
Most active SBA lenders
| Lender | Loans | Dollars |
|---|---|---|
| PYMES Financial Partners, Inc. | 8 | $4.4 million |
| Lender | Loans | Dollars |
|---|---|---|
| Banco Popular de Puerto Rico | 100 | $11.4 million |
| Oriental Bank | 49 | $9.7 million |
| FirstBank Puerto Rico | 31 | $6.2 million |
| Economic Development Bank for Puerto Rico | 5 | $624,600 |
Lenders with 5 or more loans here; a lender with fewer is not listed, and loans SBA or a receiver holds are counted but never listed as a lender.
Where the loans are, by county
| County | Loans |
|---|---|
| San Juan Municipio, PR | 103 |
| Caguas Municipio, PR | 17 |
| Carolina Municipio, PR | 15 |
| Bayamón Municipio, PR | 14 |
| Guaynabo Municipio, PR | 10 |
| Luquillo Municipio, PR | 6 |
| Toa Baja Municipio, PR | 6 |
| Humacao Municipio, PR | 5 |
| Trujillo Alto Municipio, PR | 5 |
Counties with 5 or more loans; smaller ones are not listed.
Metro is the CBSA (metropolitan or micropolitan statistical area) of the loan's project county, July 2023 delineation (OMB Bulletin 23-01). The county is matched by name (manifests/ld2/county-cbsa-map.csv); a loan whose county cannot be placed in a 2023 CBSA is left out of every metro.
A value marked withheld rests on fewer than 5 loans, or is withheld so that such a figure cannot be derived from other published figures.
Source: U.S. Small Business Administration, 7(a) and 504 loan-level FOIA files (data.sba.gov), as of 2026-09-30; areas from the U.S. Census Bureau CBSA delineation, July 2023 (OMB Bulletin 23-01); Loan Analytics metro cell MA-41980-C34.
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