Gas Station Feasibility Study in the Merced, CA Metro Area

Merced fuel stations: concentration and scale far above the norm

With an 8.89x location quotient, gas stations and truck stops dominate Merced, CA lending to a degree the national book never shows. The class is first in Merced (1 of 39) even though the area is 45 of 600 across the country. Loans are also large: the $2.3 million median is 2.20x the nationwide median. Merced County carries all 28 approvals, which total $65.9 million for FY2017 to FY2026, and brand-affiliated stations are 53.6% of loans.

Range and timing

Loans between $1.4 million and $2.9 million fill the middle half, so even the lower quartile is a seven-figure loan. Counts by year print for five years, and four of them are empty: FY2017, FY2018, FY2022 and FY2023 each show no approvals ($0). FY2021 stands alone with 8 loans and $17.6 million. Every other year is hidden, as 28 loans cannot fill every year. A lumpy record like this tells a reader that a handful of years account for the totals.

The holder

SBA's data gives Celtic Bank Corporation 9 loans worth $20.4 million, a record of custody only. That is nearly a third of the 28 loans in the area. The program counts are hidden.

Coding limits and blanks

Industry is the borrower's own description, so a travel center cannot be told from a station with no store, and a charging site finds no home in the 2022 index. Merced: empty cancellation and charge-off cells, as 28 approvals are too few, and nothing is implied about performance.

Study points for a Merced County fuel site

With loans this large, the study must show how a station reaches the volume that carries a multi-million dollar debt. Start with gallons: traffic past the site, nearby pumps, truck access and the entry design. Add store, food and any wash revenue, each built separately. The budget should break out land, canopy, tanks and equipment, and give tank age, closure cost and environmental history their own lines. Where a brand is involved, read supply terms and image requirements, since they change margin. A lender will test the payment against a narrower fuel margin, and the appraisal should hold the real estate apart from the going business.