Child Care Center Feasibility Study in the Omaha, NE-IA Metro Area

Why child care stands out in Omaha

Few classes weigh as heavily in a metro as child care does in Omaha. The class is number two of 39 here, and its location quotient of 2.48x means local lending carries well over twice the national weight for it. SBA files hold 70 loans for FY2017 to FY2026 and $43.6 million approved. Sizes center on $350,000, or 0.77x the national median, with a middle half from $150,000 to $817,000. On volume across all metro and micro areas Omaha places 33 of 493.

Ownership signals in the program split

Of the 70 loans, 45 are 7(a) and 25 are 504. That share of 504 is notable for a service business and hints that many operators buy or build their facilities. Franchise share is 12.9%, so most centers are independent. A coding caveat applies: home-based providers are indistinguishable from centers in the data, since in-home care shares the same industry code.

Douglas County and the holders

Douglas County, NE carries 50 loans, so the Nebraska core is nearly the whole record. Emprise Bank is the only holder to reach the 7(a) listing line, with 5 loans and $1.9 million; this is a count of SBA-recorded holdings and no comment on the bank. Peak years are FY2019 with 11 loans and $9.7 million and FY2020 with 11 and $4.1 million. FY2018 had 7 and $3.4 million, FY2021 had 8 and $3.0 million, FY2022 had 7 and $4.9 million, FY2024 had 9 and $4.2 million, FY2025 had 7 and $6.2 million, and FY2026 has 5 and $3.8 million. FY2017 and FY2023 are withheld.

A high cancellation floor

Omaha child care lost at least 25.9% of FY2017 to FY2024 approvals to cancellation, which is a floor and a striking one. Omaha gives no ceiling and no loss rate beyond that floor. Omaha's loans were placed by matching project county names to the July 2023 area list.

Questions an Omaha study has to answer

Licensed capacity must be tested against the number of young children in the draw area, along with staff ratios, wage pressure and the months an enrollment ramp takes. A building that meets code, playground and safety requirements is expensive, and the 504 share suggests real estate often matters to the deal. Given a floor that high, a Omaha study should show how the plan absorbs delay, and the appraisal ought to name where value lives: the property, or the licensed operation.