Child Care Center Feasibility Study in Nebraska

Nebraska child care: the cancellation story

Nebraska child care centers carry a heavier presence in SBA lending than the national mix would predict, and the cancellation record is what makes the cell its own. SBA approved 82 center loans between FY2017 and FY2026, worth $51.6 million. Child care ranks 3 of 39 among Nebraska asset classes, and a location quotient of 1.46x shows the class taking a bigger bite of the state's approvals than it does across the country. Counted against other states, Nebraska sits 29 of 53, so the weight comes from the state's own mix of businesses and not from sheer volume.

Cancellation took at least 22.4% of Nebraska child care approvals through FY2024; add loans that remain undisbursed and the ceiling climbs to 25.4%. Because the floor counts only what the files confirm, open cases can raise it but never lower it. Plenty of approved projects here did not reach a closing in the form SBA first blessed. A lender sizing a Nebraska child care pipeline should price that attrition. A sponsor should treat an approval as a conditional offer, with licensing, construction cost and equity as the places where projects fall away.

Smaller tickets, real estate included

The median Nebraska loan is $336,000, only 0.74x what child care borrowers nationwide take at the median; the interquartile band spans $145,500 to $818,250. Of the loans, 53 are 7(a) and 29 are 504, a meaningful real estate share, so owners here buy and build as well as lease. Franchising touches 12.2% of loans. Emprise Bank is the single lender the cell names, with 5 loans and $1.9 million under 7(a). Douglas County leads the map with 50 loans, Sarpy follows with 17 and Lancaster has 7, so activity clusters around Omaha and Lincoln.

Of 32 Nebraska loans from the older disbursed group, at least 6.3% have been charged off to date, and 3.1% went bad inside five years of approval. A cohort this small swings on a single default, so these figures describe experience loosely. They do not set Nebraska apart from its parents in the way the cancellation floor does.

Testing a Nebraska center before anyone builds one

A study for a child care center in Nebraska should open with the cancellation floor and ask why approved projects dropped out. Enrollment demand has to come from working households within a realistic drive, set against the licensed seats already nearby. Cost work covers the building, the playground and safety fixtures, measured against a median loan well below the national one. Debt service coverage must survive staffing ratios, which drive payroll, and tuition that Nebraska parents can carry. The appraisal is special-use work: income value matters, and the lender needs a fallback if the operator walks. Note the data caveat too: the business category behind these loans also contains in-home providers, so the counts mix two models.