Feasibility Study Data for the Show Low, AZ Micro Area

A lodging-dominated record at a high elevation of loan size

Show Low, AZ is Navajo County alone, a micropolitan area with 133 loans and $104.7 million from FY2017 to FY2026, 403rd of 928 by loan count. Hotel and motel dominates the tracked classes with 27 loans, three times the 9 for full-service restaurant and far above limited-service restaurant at 7 and automotive mechanical repair at 6. Another 64 loans fall in no class. Franchise brands appear in 24.8% of loans.

With a median of $350,000 (1.68x the national figure), Show Low's loans in the centre of the distribution stretch from $95,000 to $1.1 million. Of the total, 116 are 7(a) and 17 are 504, with Arizona Capital Source holding 7 of the 504 loans worth $5.0 million, CDC Small Business Finance Corp. 5 worth $5.3 million and The Mortgage Capital Development Corporation 5 worth $3.3 million. All three sit at or near the threshold of what SBA lists. Navajo County holds all 133 loans. The 24.8% franchise share means a study of an independent operator should explain how it will compete against brand-backed neighbours.

Holders

First among 7(a) holders is Zions Bancorporation, National Association, at 21 loans and $10.9 million; behind it are Wells Fargo Bank National Association (6 loans, only $75,000), America First Federal Credit Union (5 loans, $3.2 million) and BayFirst National Bank (5 loans, $705,000). The holder entries are a map of the loan book, not a window into any bank's judgement.

Cancellation after approval reached at least 7.8% of FY2017 to FY2024 approvals. SBA publishes no ceiling and no charge-off rate for Show Low, the cohorts being small; neither is estimated here, and neither is nil. Approvals ranged from 6 loans in FY2017 to 22 in FY2024, and FY2022 stands out for dollars at $18.2 million on 13 loans. Because lodging leads the record, a lender will expect the study to say how winter and summer trade differ in Navajo County.

What the study should test

Because lodging leads, a Navajo County study has to separate visitor demand from resident demand, ask whether the rooms already financed leave space for more, and size cost against loans well above the national median. Coverage should allow for unreported losses, and value must be defensible. The county is placed by the 2023 delineation. Everything here is background, and none of it is a promise.