Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Lebanon-Claremont, NH-VT Micro Area

A small Upper Valley market with a full-service lean

Lebanon-Claremont is a micro area on the New Hampshire and Vermont line, and full-service restaurants are its number one class, 1 of 39. SBA lists 56 such loans for FY2017 to FY2026 with $15.3 million approved. Restaurants post a location quotient of 1.79x, far above their national weight, and the area stands 93 of 821 once all metro and micro areas are ranked on full-service volume. A median of $150,000 is only 0.55x the national figure, and the quartile edges sit at $78,750 and $351,750.

Independent operators, mostly 7(a)

With franchise share at 0.00%, each borrower is an independent. Program tallies show 47 loans in 7(a) and 9 in 504. Grafton County, NH carries 42 loans and Windsor County, VT 5, so the New Hampshire side leads, with the Vermont side a distinct but smaller market across the river.

Lenders and years

Granite State Economic Development Corporation is listed with 9 loans and $4.5 million, Ledyard National Bank with 8 loans and $4.8 million, and Meredith Village Savings Bank with 5 loans and $1.1 million. These three names are drawn from SBA's holder records; they do not describe how any of these three runs its business. Years that print are FY2017 at 6 loans and $2.2 million, FY2018 at 9 and $3.4 million, FY2019 at 7 and $1.2 million, FY2021 at 6 and $1.0 million, FY2023 at 5 and $1.0 million, and FY2024 at 6 and $3.1 million. FY2020, FY2022, FY2025 and FY2026 are withheld.

Floor equals ceiling

FY2017 to FY2024 approvals in the Upper Valley saw cancellation of at least 13.3%, and the stricter ceiling lands at 13.3% too. Lebanon-Claremont prints no charge-off rate, and its absence is not a rate of zero. The 56 loans are tallied through project counties such as Grafton, read by name against the July 2023 micro area.

Study questions for the Upper Valley

Restaurants here live on a mix of resident, college, medical-center and seasonal visitor demand, and a study must say which the site depends on. Test the shoulder months, since a small market can have long quiet stretches, and compare the cost of a commercial kitchen with a median near $150,000. Coverage should be run at $150,000 and again near $351,750. The appraiser should value the building, the equipment and the going concern separately.