Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA Metro Area

Harrisburg: restaurants first, close to the national share

Harrisburg accounts for 40 approved full-service restaurant loans from FY2017 through FY2026, totaling $22.1 million. The class holds 1 of 39 among Harrisburg's asset classes, and Harrisburg stands 119 of 821 nationally for full-service restaurant loans. Harrisburg is close to the national pattern for full-service restaurant, as the 0.96x location quotient shows. The county on file is Dauphin County, PA, with 26 loans.

At the median, a Harrisburg loan is $202,000; the quartile band is $96,000 to $678,900. Beside the country's median, Harrisburg comes to 0.73x, a sign of lighter projects. For Harrisburg, SBA holds back both program counts. Franchise brands stand behind 22.5% of the Harrisburg loans.

Three lenders, one clear leader

Mid Penn Bank has the largest count and dollar total, while First Commonwealth Bank shows a small dollar total for its loans. Mid Penn Bank (12 loans, $4.9 million), Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company (6 loans, $2.3 million), and First Commonwealth Bank (5 loans, $610,000) hold the 7(a) loans shown. For Harrisburg, these lines record loans held, leaving standards unaddressed.

At least 15.6% of FY2017 to FY2024 approvals in Harrisburg were cancelled, a floor. The stricter Harrisburg ceiling lands on the same 15.6%. No charge-off rate prints for Harrisburg; the page offers no loss measure. By year: FY2018, 6 loans and $835,000, FY2019, 8 loans and $2.3 million, and FY2024, 6 loans and $8.0 million. Other years are suppressed in Harrisburg, and none is zero. The Harrisburg area is built from project counties, so tallies may fall short.

Testing a Harrisburg full-service restaurant project

A near-national location quotient means the local restaurant market behaves much like others, so the study can lean on national comparison but should still test local rent, wages and competing rooms in Dauphin County. Daypart demand matters: weekday lunch trade from government and office workers, if documented, may carry a second shift, while dinner depends on residents and events. With a median of $202,000, kitchen equipment and build-out per seat must fit a modest budget. The cancellation floor of 15.6% signals that some approvals never close, so lease terms and quotes should be firm. The valuation should part the building from the operating business and show comparable restaurant sales. A commuter-road site behaves differently from a downtown block, and the study ought to say which this is, with parking, visibility and access shown.