Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Fresno, CA Metro Area

The cancellation floor defines this cell

Fresno's full-service restaurant loans stand out for how many never closed. Cancellation after approval reached 26.3% or more for FY2017 through FY2024 approvals, and the stricter version counting undisbursed loans lands on the identical number. That is a floor. The page gives no cause for the cancellations, so a study should check timing, permits and the borrower's readiness.

Size and place

SBA approved 53 loans for $38.5 million between FY2017 and FY2026. A midpoint of $424,000 is 1.54x the class's national midpoint, and the typical loan runs from $150,000 to $843,000. Restaurants are third among the 39 classes in the area, though Fresno is 97 of 821 nationally, and a quotient of 0.67x says the class carries less weight here than across the country. Fresno County has 47 of the loans and Madera County 6.

Programs and franchising

By program, 7(a) took 47 loans and 504 took 6, so almost all of the loans are 7(a). Franchise share is 15.1%, so most loans carry no franchise flag. FFB Bank is listed on 12 loans worth $12.0 million, a sizeable block of the cell's dollars, and no other holder is named, while the remaining holders fall below the listing floor. The listing follows SBA's current-holder field.

Years

Printed years: FY2018 with 5 loans and $581,500; FY2019 with 7 and $4.7 million; FY2021 with 5 and $4.9 million; FY2022 with 5 and $1.6 million; FY2025 with 7 and $5.1 million; FY2026 with 8 and $7.8 million. Loan Analytics withholds the rest. No charge-off rate is printed either, and its absence is not a zero.

Planning a Central Valley restaurant

Start with the dining spend of the trade area and the competing restaurants on the same corridors, then the size of the dining room against a realistic table turn. Kitchen build-out cost against a loan near $424,000, labor cost in California, and lease terms belong in the analysis. With cancellations running at that level, check as well the permitting path and the readiness of the site before a borrower leans on an approval. The payment should be covered at sales under the plan, and the appraisal should keep the going concern apart from any real estate.