Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Dayton-Kettering-Beavercreek, OH Metro Area

Dayton's restaurant record is defined by small tickets. Full-service the metro's classes are headed by full-service restaurants, but the area sits at 86 in a field of 821, and a location quotient of 0.66x puts restaurant lending well beneath its national weight. Against a national class median, the $150,000 Dayton figure comes to just 0.55x. The FY2017 to FY2026 file lists 61 approvals worth $20.3 million, with the bulk of loans between $50,000 and $473,000.

Montgomery County and one dominant lender

Montgomery County, OH accounts for 42 loans, with Greene County, OH at 12 and Miami County, OH at 7. The Huntington National Bank towers over the lender list at 34 loans and $8.5 million, a concentration far beyond what most restaurant markets show, and a borrower or consultant here is likely to meet that bank's name often. Franchise units make up 21.3% of loans. The 7(a) versus 504 division is concealed by SBA.

Years that can be read, and years that cannot

FY2017 posted 10 loans and $4.3 million, FY2019 9 loans and $2.1 million and FY2020 5 loans and $1.4 million. FY2022 had 10 loans and $2.9 million, FY2023 8 loans and only $589,100, and FY2024 5 loans and $3.1 million. Rows for FY2018, FY2021, FY2025 and FY2026 are masked. Cancellation and charge-off rates are likewise hidden, each resting on too few loans, which leaves lenders with no loss floor to compare; a blank is not a measured nothing.

Proving a Dayton concept

With the area's restaurants borrowing at roughly half the national median, a study should ask whether the project is a typical neighborhood place or something larger, and justify any departure. Trade-area work should count seats and sales per seat among direct competitors in the corridor, and weigh the strong presence of one bank against the borrower's own financing options. Build-out cost, equipment and working capital belong beside the $150,000 median. Debt service coverage needs a restrained opening ramp and a labor line set against local wages. An appraiser should split going-concern value from property value. Metro membership comes from the July 2023 delineation. Spell out, too, the menu, the price per check and the hours, and show how many covers per seat per day the plan needs, since those figures decide whether a modest loan is serviceable.