Child Care Center Feasibility Study in the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metro Area

Riverside child care: a small share, a middling rank

From FY2017 to FY2026, 61 child care center loans, $53.7 million in total, were approved in Riverside. Two standings frame Riverside: 38 of 493 nationally for child care center, and 13 of 39 among the classes at home. Child care center is underweight in Riverside: a 0.41x location quotient sits below the national share. Child care is a small part of the local mix. County counts: San Bernardino County, CA, 31 and Riverside County, CA, 30.

The median Riverside loan is $446,000; the middle half runs $260,000 to $970,000. Beside the country's median, Riverside comes to 0.99x, nearly even. By program, Riverside shows 45 under 7(a) and 16 under 504. Franchised units are 16.4% of the Riverside loans.

Four holders on the Riverside record

Live Oak Banking Company shows a large average loan, while U.S. Bank, National Association shows a small one. $11.8 million across 5 loans at Live Oak Banking Company, $6.1 million across 5 loans at Shinhan Bank America, and $721,500 across 5 loans at U.S. Bank, National Association hold the 7(a) loans shown. California Statewide Certified Development Corporation with 7 loans worth $5.9 million hold the 504 loans shown. Names in Riverside are shown as SBA publishes them, files only, never practices.

For Riverside, Loan Analytics holds back the cancellation floor along with the charge-off rate; the blank does not mean nil. By year: FY2018 (8 loans, $9.9 million), FY2021 (5 loans, $3.6 million), FY2024 (12 loans, $9.5 million), and FY2026 (7 loans, $8.8 million). Loan Analytics withholds the omitted years because the counts behind them are thin. Because in-home child care sits under the same code, the totals blend centers with family homes. The Riverside area is built from project counties, leaving unplaceable projects out.

Where a Riverside study must dig

Because child care is a small part of local lending, the study should lean on local evidence: licensed capacity against working households, the waiting lists and vacancies of nearby centers, and commute patterns. Staffing ratios become payroll, so coverage should be run at partial enrollment, and licensing timelines belong beside the first tuition payment. With a median loan of $446,000, build-out per child and playground and kitchen requirements should be itemized. Valuation must part the real estate from the operating business and test alternative uses.