Child Care Center Feasibility Study in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Metro Area

Sizing up 111 Phoenix loans

Over FY2017 to FY2026, Phoenix businesses in child care center took 111 approvals totaling $84.5 million. A middle-of-the-road loan is $500,000; the middle half spans $252,000 to $1.0 million. At 1.11x of the national median for child care center, Phoenix sits above the national figure.

Phoenix ranks 21 of 493 for child care center

Loan Analytics withholds the Phoenix, AZ program split because the counts are small; neither count is estimated. Franchise loans are 19.8% of the Phoenix, AZ file. Among metro and micro areas, Phoenix is 21 of 493 for child care center; inside Phoenix, the class itself is 10 of 39. A location quotient of 0.72x leaves child care center lighter in Phoenix, AZ than nationwide across Phoenix. Maricopa County, AZ holds 104 of Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler's loans and Pinal County, AZ holds 7; no other county appears.

Who holds the 111 Phoenix loans

Annual loans peak in FY2018 at 12 ($4.6 million) and bottom out in FY2022 at 6 ($5.9 million). Phoenix leaves out the years where child care center loans were too few to print, and does not treat them as zero. Phoenix, AZ 7(a) holders, ranked by loans: Wells Fargo Bank National Association (7 loans, $3.0 million); Enterprise Bank & Trust (6 loans, $3.8 million); Arizona Capital Source (6 loans, $843,400). Wells Fargo Bank National Association holds the most loans, 7, and Enterprise Bank & Trust holds the most dollars among the 7(a) names, $3.8 million. Wells Fargo Bank National Association shows 7 loans only since SBA names it holder here in Phoenix, AZ; the $3.0 million says nothing about lending standards. Phoenix, AZ 504 entries: Arizona Capital Source with 10 loans for $7.3 million. Phoenix has no printed cancellation rate, as too few loans support one, and the gap is not zero. A loss rate for child care center in Phoenix needs a larger disbursed cohort than the 111 loans offer, so the rate stays withheld.

What a child care center study in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler has to prove

For child care center in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, the first question is family enrollment, competing centers and the local share of working parents, measured site by site. The Phoenix, AZ build or purchase has to absorb a building fit for licensed use, playground and outdoor space and safety upgrades, and Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler figures should replace national rules of thumb. The coverage test asks if stabilized Phoenix earnings carry a loan like those above, $252,000 to $1.0 million for the middle half in Phoenix, and survive a slow first year. Last comes the appraisal around Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, where the licensed building, classroom fit-out and the land each need support before the Phoenix appraiser tests. The $84.5 million Phoenix, AZ record describes past approvals and does not forecast one, and it promises no Phoenix applicant approval.

How to read Phoenix, AZ's $84.5 million

Each of the 111 loans in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler is assigned by project county. Matching Maricopa County, AZ and its neighbors to Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler uses names under the July 2023 delineation. For Phoenix, the 111 loans cover centers and family homes alike, because no code separates the two. Phoenix cancellation covers FY2017 to FY2024 approvals for Phoenix; charge-offs cover FY2017 to FY2021 disbursements.